Lebanon and Israel's "Five-Pillar" Strategy against Iran

Some interesting comments made in a meeting on August 17th 2007, between Mossad Chief Meir Dagan and Under Secretary Burns. The context of this meeting is interesting. It is almost one year after the Israeli defeat in Lebanon and one year before the Hezbullah take-over in Beirut.

For those who have a memory, they will remember that in the year after the Israeli attack of 2006, there was an increasingly violent period of demonstrations, militia clashes and bombings in Lebanon as March 14 associated groups tried to counterbalance Hezbullah internally. The culmination of this was that in 2008, Hezbullah took over Beirut in about 6 hours, destroying the power of the 'Future' militias aligned to Saad al Hariri, and completely surrounding Walid Jumblatt's home, demanding the surrender of his entire weapons cache there. The Future television station was also shut down temporarily, and Saad al Hariri was not allowed to leave his home.

In this meeting a year earlier, Dagan describes then prime minister of Lebanon Siniora as a 'courageous man' and that "Hariri, Jumblatt and others" had personal and political reasons which would make them anti-Syrian. Most interestingly, Dagan said that the US and Israel are "on the edge of achieving something in Lebanon, and so cannot afford to drop their guard. What is necessary is finding the right way to support PM Siniora."

We see here that, in 2007, the US and Israel both believed that this internal counterbalance to Hezbullah that had been slowly building up might actually be able to pin the Islamic movement down. Of course we know that this did not happen, and today Saad Hariri, now the prime minister of Lebanon, is in Tehran, presenting his credentials. This narrative to what was happening is in stark contrast to the naive comments made by some commentators that somehow Hezbullah was to blame for the internal strife and growth of new militias in that country. The paranoia that they accuse Hezbullah of, often sarcastically, is in fact well placed.

Israel's Five Pillar Strategy against Iran

More interesting things in the meeting were regarding this Five Pillar strategy that Israel employs against Lebanon. Each to "bear fruit", according to Mr Dagan, in its own time.

The first pillar is with regards to the Political Approach. In this approach, Israel strongly supports further sanctions against Iran through the UN Security Council. This is independent to when Iran actually possesses nuclear capability, but it will bear fruit at some later stage and was useful to have. The second pillar concerning Covert Operations, was, with hindsight, a wise decision not to discuss at the meeting. Counterproliferation, Sanctions and Forced Regime Change were the other three pillars.

Particularly interesting was the comment made regarding ethnic minorities in Iran. As I had mentioned in a widely-criticised article on Islam Comment, ethnic minorities are extremely useful to both the US and Israel in undermining security in Iran and other countries. In this meeting, Dagan points out that, "more should be done to foment regime change in Iran, possibly with the support of student democracy movements, and ethnic groups (e.g., Azeris,Kurds, Baluchs) opposed to the ruling regime."

He also said that "more could be done to develop the identities of ethnic minorities in Iran."

This approach is aimed at weakening and dividing the state and, as a strategy, is one which is likely to have been employed on numerous occasions with many other opponents. In fact the example of Iraq comes to mind first and foremost. I am also pleased to note my initial assumptions, that the student led revolts of the "Green Revolution" following the 2009 Iranian elections were something to the advantage of the West and not for the Iranian people, have been confirmed. The mentality exposed in this high level meeting in Tel Aviv seems to demonstrate this fact, again, the naivety of some commentators and news agencies astounds me today as it did then. I intend to cross-reference a lot more documents with my posts surrounding key events, and will tag such posts with the Wikileak tag to make these easier to find at a later date.

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More on the Special Tribunal for Lebanon

Interesting article brought to my attention by a friend of mine regarding the Special Tribunal for Lebanon and how the US and Israel intend to use it for their advantage.

This all has very serious implications, and is also quite an accurate depiction. There is nothing that can be done by either Syria or Lebanon to prevent the STL from actually issuing an indictment, and Lebanon could very well implode under Iranian-style sanctions. But I don't think it will be used by the United States and Israel as a prelude to an raid on Lebanon in order to bring in the subjects.

As the article suggests, it is more likely they will pressure the Lebanese until someone in Lebanon becomes strong enough or stupid enough to try and bring in the 'suspects'. That seems unlikely to happen, and Hezbullah can take over Lebanon outright and hold it if they wished. The sanctions, though, might lead to acts aimed at provoking Hezbullah or Iran into performing more direct actions against Israel. The idea is to let Hezbullah cook slowly over maybe ten years of sanctions before more direct action is applied, but I think Nasrallah's statements are making it very clear that Hezbullah will not wait ten years under sanctions, and will in fact respond immediately. How they will do so is the big question...

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Thoughts on a Sunday...

The battle of narratives continues as this week's Economist quietly insinuates that it was Imad Mughniyeh who was behind the spate of bombings that took place in Lebanon from 2005 until 2008. What they don't mention in the slightest is that in 2008 Hezbullah took over Beirut in about 6 hours, destroying the power base of the March 14th movement, temporarily closing down the Future TV main studios and encircling Walid Jumblatt's home, demanding that he surrender the weapons he had stockpiled within, all listed down to the last bullet and pistol. Of course the Economist does not like Hezbullah, so it's objectivity only covers particular spheres whilst ignoring others.

In another article, I read with interest the details of Israel's latest gas finds, something that has already attracted the attention of the Lebanese and, I am sure, that of Hezbullah. It is a certainty that the Israelis are aware of Hezbullah's ability to target their shipping and off-shore interests, and all decisions and developments surrounding this issue will most certainly factor such abilities into account. The next war against Lebanon will be absolutely ferocious.

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Checkmate in Beirut

I've been extremely busy lately, with Ramadan coming to a close, and unable to blog or read the news with any consistency. Furthermore, it seems like I will be visiting Syria again very soon. Still, there are a few things that have caught my attention recently, such as Saad al Hariri's public announcement that his accusing Syria of assassinating his father (and the former prime minister of Lebanon) as a mistake. This is a wise move to make, and it shows that the man is beginning to recognise the political reality in Lebanon and the wider region. This reality came into effect following the invasion of Iraq, where it was was intended that a kind of domino effect would give birth to a "New Middle East". The linchpin, Lebanon, was next in the equation and in effect, a block of hostile countries from Lebanon to Pakistan would be chopped up into pieces: first Afghanistan; then Iraq; and finally Lebanon. This would have left Syria and Iran surrounded and place considerable pressure on them; especially with regards to a peace-deal with Israel.

This plan did not work. Lebanon today is firmly within the orbit of Tehran and this reality took effect in two stages. In the first, external, stage, Israel attempted to crush Hezbullah in a month-long war that had been intended regardless of the capture of the two Israeli soldiers. The second stage, an internally orchestrated "coup" by Western-backed political figures was ended in roughly 6 hours when Hezbullah took over Beirut in 2008 and destroyed the fledgling militias that were being armed with Saudi and American assistance.

To talk about anything else in those two years is absolute nonsense, especially with regards to the Tribunal concerning Hariri's death. Regardless of who killed Hariri, it was obvious that this highly politicised witch-hunt, directed first at Syria and then shifted to Hezbullah, had fizzled out and one of the first people who recognised this was non-other than Walid Jumblatt. He went from bashing Damascus whilst on a visit to Washington to bashing Washington whilst on a visit to Damascus - all in the space of two years. Checkmate in Beirut, or should we say Shah Maat...

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Weekly roundup

Well what is there to say about this week? The week of calamities more like. It seems like everytime I turn to the news there is another story of flooding, death and destruction. And I haven't even started with news from Iraq yet. The flooding in Pakistan was the most prominent in my attention, mainly because Mr 10% is now visiting London whilst his people are suffering. Apparently the problem is being taken care of, so he did not think it worth his time to come back and be a leader to his people. What can you say of a person like this? A man who was in prison for nine years and is now ruler of the same country? Not much that hasn't already been said. Truly fortune is a fickle creature.

In Lebanon the army finally fired back at an Israeli incursion, killing an Israeli Lieutenant Colonel but at the tragic cost of three soldiers and a journalist. Sadly this might not be a new trend on the part of the Lebanese army but more likely that the commander in that area is loyal to Hezbullah and therefore prepared to defend his country. Some suspect he will be quietly transferred away and the issue will be quitened down. Rather than the start of a new war, it seems this little event caught everybody by surprise and both the Israelis and the Lebanese were quick to downplay the incident.

In Iraq a series of bombings over the past two days remain 'unexplained' according to al Jazeera. The hiatus over forming an Iraqi government continues and I heard smatterings about Obama ending combat operations for the United States Army by the 31st of August. I think for all extents and purposes the "occupation" of Iraq is over. At least formally. There are new actors now the dust has settled considerably. What is interesting is to see Iraq becoming the "new Lebanon", that is a country that is totally compromised, fluid and insecure, meaning it is the perfect playground for intelligence services. Maliki is clinging on to the floating debris of his former authority but I don't know what to expect there to be honest. Knowing the Iraqi temperament it is unlikely that some strongman will not try to seize power and send all these politicians to the gallows. When is the question.

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"Nasrallah's big freak out" author's big freak out

So the author from Beirut to the Beltway felt like venting out after Nasrallah's speech the other day. Apparently this anonymous journalist believes nothing is permanent in Lebanon and that Nasrallah knows it. It would do him good to remind himself of that fact, as a man who places all his faith either in the United States or in Israel. Yes, nothing is permanent in Lebanon, be it the Israeli occupation of the South which ended in 2000, the myth of Israeli supremacy in Lebanon which ended in 2006 or that Lebanon would always be under French mandate or dominated by Maronite Christians. This wasn't so much Nasrallah's big freak out as it is a big freak out for people like the author of Beirut to the Beltway. Truly, nothing is permanent and Nasrallah knows it. It's a shame the same could not be said for the author of that article.

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Some words about the Lebanese...

"Mrs Makhoul is just one of several Lebanese teachers and parents who are concerned that increasing numbers of young people can no longer speak Arabic well, despite being born and raised in the Middle Eastern country."

I don't know about the rest of Lebanon, but certainly people I've met who come from Beirut are not only dismally ignorant of the Arabic language, their behaviour and mannerisms are completely European and totally internalised. Even Malcolm X had dismal things to say about the level of mental colonialism that they suffer from there, especially their women.

I also notice that class does divide Lebanese (regardless of political orientation) who go abroad. Poorer Lebanese (children of immigrants) from Beirut are into "R'n'B" and "Hip-Hop", Western musical styles originating from deprived urban youth groups, and the richer Lebanese who study at fancy universities abroad have a lot of what people in the United States call "WASP" characteristics. WASP means White-AngloSaxon-Protestant. When I see them I see that they dress the same way as WASP young dress, listen to the same music, and go drinking in the same grotty East end dives that they do - to get an "authentic" feel. When you talk to members of both of these groups, they talk the same way, view the world in a very similar way, and completely internalise the group logic that they have affiliated themselves with.

This may all be quite normal I guess, but it also probably says a lot about where they come from. It goes without saying that their level of Arabic is dismal, many of the ones I've met who come from a Muslim background don't even know the basics of Wudu, let alone what Islam is. Those that come from a Christian background tend to share the same nihilistic and disillusioned perspective with "religion" that their Western counterparts claim to have as well, but don't really know or understand why. All very amusing and quite sad really.

The other day someone I know sent me a clip that "Playboy" an American, now international, magazine which is famous for publishing pictures of naked women in suggestive poses, along with news and current interest articles, had a lingerie fashion show in Beirut. The Lebanese woman who had organised it was trying to portray in a television interview that she was challenging a stifling conservatism that "yet again" was in outrage....she's made herself out to be a total martyr, and for what! I have no sympathy towards her whatsoever and in fact I support ostracising people like her.

I don't think it's wrong to be fluent in another language, but if you don't know who you are, have no principles, and don't even try finding out, then something isn't quite right with you. In fact the only balanced and Arabic-speaking Lebanese I've ever met tended to come from the South of Lebanon and are mostly Shia. It is not surprising that the other Lebanese I've described above can absolutely despise these southerners and view them almost as if they are aliens. I think if they want to see aliens they should just look in the mirror.

صدق من قال

نسائهم لعب رجالهم مع من غلب تجمعهم الطبله وتفرقهم العصا

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Every cloud has a silver lining?

Nicholas Noe writes for the Guardian on what he thinks is the silver lining for what is currently a very dark cloud. He is right in thinking that Hezbullah and the Christian Free Patriotic movement are most likely to win the elections, but to think that this would pressure Hezbullah to disarm are naive. When he talks about a "strong" Lebanese army being an incentive for the Party of God to drop their weapons, he misses the point that the majority of the army would be Lebanese Shia. He will also be sorely disappointed to know that the very concept of this "strong" army, in the eyes of Hezbullah and all its supporters, is identical with the capability, position and effectiveness of the movement as it stands at the moment, and the government will also be this way - especially with regards to the Zionist state. Washington and Tel Aviv also know this so I doubt very much that anyone will be taking much attention of Mr Noe's opinion. What a waste of five minutes.

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America's House Negroes in the Middle East: Where are they now?

The final chapter in the little big adventure that began in the Middle East in 2003 is now over. I have lost count of the tussles, arguments and abuse I have gone through with people concerning the importance (or lack of it) of the Hariri tribunal, after the failed 2006 Israeli war and then Hezbullah's takeover of Beirut, I claimed it was a dead horse that was no longer useful to America. Here is an post I had written in October 2007 which summarised the situation. The final defeat of the United States' grand plan in the region is marked by their conceding to the release of the four suspects in the Hariri tribunal. Once the elections take place and Hezbullah smashes into power with Aoun as President, the March 14th figureheads will be nothing more than the biggest, fattest zero in Middle Eastern politics. Now, a brief look at the brightest and best apologists for the American project for the region and where they are today:

Beirut to the Beltway is now closed. Here is a short quote from the final post there and might I add, good riddance:

My new American dream replaced my Lebanese nightmare, at least during the day, when ghosts hide under pillows. At night, however, they rear their ugly heads, redrawing that path of self-torture that raised me. I will probably always dream of the shells, the darkness of the shelter, and the frustrations of living small in a place that pretends to be large. But when the light rises from behind the hill, I am new. Remember that myth about the Phoenix rising from the ashes? It is true. But in my case, life came back somewhere else.

That was my past. Thank you for reading. This blog is over. My story begins.

Tony Badran from Across the Bay fumes slowly at the turn of events in Syria and Lebanon. Silently, sadly. His other blog, the Syria Monitor, was last updated in May 2007. He was also a contributer to CLIME (The Centre for Liberty in the Middle East). Click here for a post I wrote about them in 2007 as well.

The website for CLIME -mideastliberty.org appears to have fallen into disuse as there is no sign of any updates or activity at all.

Ammar Abdulhamid, a former Syrian and the son of the famous actress Mona Wassef. I once called Mr Abdulhamid a lame, toothless tiger after coming across his blog and discovering his disastrous political positions, today he has disappeared off the map altogether. His blog has not been updated for a very long time but his Tharwa Foundation seems to be ticking along quietly in the background with a flashy new website. For now it seems that the Amarji has left the building. 

The "Reform" party of Syria has a new fancy website - must be more US funding. Farid Ghadry's presidency of the party lapsed recently. I never thought it would be possible but this remarkable party has achieved what I thought was previously impossible. They are more irrelevant today than they were a few years ago.

Farid (Frank) Ghadry has crawled back to his hole. The last I heard, his father was suing him for some botched business deal but I cannot confirm this.

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Missiles, Missiles everywhere...

Missiles are constantly on the news these days and for good reason. The United States and its allies are particularly worried about threats from what they call "rogue" states and the recent missile test (sorry satellite launch test) by North Korea has ruffled more than a few feathers. I don't think this was because the North Koreans would launch a nuclear attack, they are more interested in bargaining, but because North Korean technology has a way of filtering through to countries like Pakistan, Iran, Syria and other undesirable countries. Unlike the money printing and drug dealing, this is the one thing which annoys the United States the most about the Democratic Republic's attempt to gain hard currency.

Missiles in particular are the headache of advanced armies. They are cheaper than other conventional weapons, difficult to protect against and difficult to find and destroy. The biggest proof in its effectiveness is the continued use of the Katyusha as a strategic weapon by Hezbullah against the Israelis. First used by the Soviet Union against the German army, the Lebanese have found it to be as effective a weapon against the Zionist state as the Russians found it with the Nazi state.

The Islamic Republic is probably the biggest worry for the Israeli's and Americans and the Iranians have been particularly adept at developing and improving on missile technology. I firmly believe that it is only a matter of time before they develop the capacity of nuclear weapons, you don't build an expensive long range rocket just to load it with TNT, so I sympathise with the Israeli and American paranoia. What I don't believe is that the weapon will be offensive. I think that it will be a strategic tool for the defense of the republic and a balance against the Israeli nuclear arsenal, which is desparately needed as the West becomes increasingly bellicose and colonial in its dealings with the Middle East. The very presence of Iranian nuclear weapons would probably be a casus beli but unlike Pakistan, currently the only nuclear powered Muslim country, Iran will be much more difficult to dismantle.

The recent Israeli anti-missile tests are pretty useless, probably just a PR exercise for the Israelis themselves, but it tells us how important missile technology has been for countries and groups wishing to resist advanced Western armies and how seriously the new/old colonial powers are taking them.

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The giant speaks...

Not even a fly can come into South Lebanon without Hezbullah's approval. The missiles fired this morning are a warning. Initially I thought Hezbullah were not interested in escalating the situation since it would have been almost certain that Israel had prepared plans for a massive assault and only needed a pretext. The pretext is there, let us see what Hezbullah announce and what Israel decide to do.

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A view from the Israeli military's perspective

Paul Wood from the BBC reported on a conference by a top Israeli military official. In contrast to all the fluffy pageantry of peace we are presented with on a daily basis, the view he has presented is sobre, uncomfortable - and real. When comfortable Arabs who can afford to own pretty things tell me, "Israel is here to stay" I know there is little useful in what they have to say. When I read the opening statement of this BBC article, I know the Israelis are serious:

Israelis sometimes say they can lose only one war. They worry that defeat could mean the destruction of their state.

It is also interesting to know that Jordan and Egypt are still considered enemies, which is a wise thing to do considering how quickly things can reverse in both those countries. As for the country's most serious threats, Iran is top of the list but I was surprised to see al-Qaeda on there. It could be there for the Americans; Sharon was quick to try to connect Israel's war against the Palestinian people with America's so-called "War on Terror" and if that is the case then it is not so surprising that he would include it on the list. The 'talks' which are said to be taking place now about a possible Syrian-Israeli peace agreement are dismissed and trivialised. Hezbullah is a mortal enemy of Israel and the fact that Syria continues to arm them whilst holding these talks means that it is not serious. He also called Abu Mazen (Mahmoud Abbas) a "chief with no Indians" who could lose the West Bank to Hamas should the Israelis stop supporting him.

The article also confirmed what many people already know, Israel will attack Lebanon again, and this time it will be much worse. This does not mean that they were not trying hard enough last time, only that lessons had now been learnt. While a politician can get away with painting defeat as victory or vice-versa, the army cannot afford such luxuries and when it has been beaten it ignores the lessons to its own peril. Sadly, these 'lessons' mean that the Israelis will just kill more people the next time they attack:

The damage to Lebanon wasn't enough to deter [Hezbollah last time]... when the terrorists become the government, the list of targets is longer

So the Lebanese government, following the purge of a few months back, is now composed of terrorists and Israel has lost its main partner on the inside. It also clearly insinuates that the policy of the Israeli military is that of collective-punishment, illegal under the laws of war and the Geneva conventions.

On another note, he was well aware of the ways that Iran could retaliate should Israel decide to attack and made the prudent observation that Iran can hurt the Americans in Iraq too. Note the cosying up of the Americans to Iran recently. All in all, to read something coming directly from the mouth of someone in the top levels of Israel's military establishment was interesting, but not because it contained anything new.

They are building their forces and are not yet ready to strike.

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Welcome home Samir et al...

The handover of the Lebanese prisoners, including Samir Kuntar, and the remains of Lebanese and Palestinian fighters represents a victory against Israel. Nasrallah had promised to return those prisoners and this is indeed the case. I think it silly how Western papers describe the Lebanese as 'trying to portray this as a victory' now that the prisoners are safely back home. Trying?!?! This is a victory over a country which till now has always believed that the only language the Arabs understand is force. This is a victory over a country which killed over 1000 Lebanese civilians in order to 'pressure' the Lebanese government and the world to 'act' against the resistance. A country which is slowly suffocating the people of Gaza and killing them slowly also to 'pressure' them into abandoning resistance. We can conclude with what has in fact been known all along, an entity like this only backs away when enough of this 'pressure' is applied on it to end it's occupation and go back to where it came from. Today is a defeat for Israel and all those who support colonialism and occupation.

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(Warning: Shameless advertising!) My friend Ghassan aka. Goo, has composed and produced a cool song called Evacuate about his experience during the 2006 Israeli war against Lebanon. It's pretty funky, check it out on his MySpace profile.

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"Saudi Arabian football authorities are investigating an error that led to the Syrian national anthem being played before a match against Lebanon."

:-)

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Hilarious excerpt from the BBC website...

Cafe owner Jihad Hakim is still furious about last month's incursion into west Beirut by Hezbollah fighters, who fought street battles and burned down one of the studio complexes of Future TV.
"It was an invasion!" he said. "These people, they get all their orders from you know who, from Iran, from Syria. Iran wants a little army here."
He was being restrained. Another man said it was a case of Hezbollah "raping the Lebanese capital, then setting her free and asking for a kiss".

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"Unless a force is quickly found that can prevent the reemergence of Hezbollah in southern Lebanon after its infrastructure has been crushed and its fighters defeated, we will all be back to square one."

I stopped reading as soon as I finished that paragraph.

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I haven't been able to confirm this piece, but it certainly is hilarious.

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Saniora said he is looking forward to spending more quality time with his wife and three grown children.
"Since I went into public office I have not enjoyed my family," he said. "I should have allocated more time to enjoy my children, to enjoy their childhood."
Still he said he will be resigning with his head high on Sunday, proud of the fact that he had stuck to his principles.
"I am a man known for his patience, his prudence, who sticks to his principles and I believe I've lived up to that," he said.

"You know I shave in front of the mirror everyday and I respect the face I'm looking at."(AFP)

Beirut, 24 May 08, 20:06

(Thank you Serene!)

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" "It is critical that the international community come together to assist the Lebanese people in their hour of need," Bush said on the eve of a visit to the Middle East."

Apparently when Israel was bombing Lebanon "back to the Stone Age" in 2006, the Lebanese people did not matter as much but now they do. It is not so much what this man says which annoys me, it is that some Arabs parrot the same logic (or lack thereof) with a conviction that is shameful.

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"Hizbullah and Iran won the battle of Beirut," Jumblatt told the Guardian in his besieged Beirut home. "The Iranians chose the moment America is weak in the Middle East. The balance of power has completely changed in Lebanon and now we wait to see what new rules Hizbullah, Syria and Iran will lay down."

I don't think there is anything more I can say about this. Frankly I think the game is over in Lebanon and now if anything is going to happen it could start from Israel, which has been very quiet so far.

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