The New Great Game - Iran and Israel

Some interesting comments coming out of the Israeli state recently. Firstly, Gabi Ashkenazi believes Hezbullah may take over Lebanon if the Special Tribunal for Lebanon accuses members of the party in the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik al Hariri. This is an interesting statement to make, firstly because Israel had traditionally drawn a distinction between the Lebanese state and Hezbullah. Statements made over the past few years indicate that in future wars, Israel will no longer recognise that distinction and will target Lebanese infrastructure. A baffling statement if one considers the desctruction wrought in previous conflicts...

In another bit of news, the divided village of Ghajjar, long seen as a security gap by the Israelis, will now be withdrawn from. The Israeli army will only patrol the southern half whilst UNIFIL protects the northern side. There was also an announcement that Israel's missile and satellite defence network will be completed by 2015, ostensibly to protect the country from Iran. As for Egypt, Ashkenazi was quite vocal in his criticism of their inability to prevent smuggling into Gaza. Apparently Israeli intelligence believe Hamas now has missiles with a range of 80km, making Tel Aviv well within their range. It's quite likely that the Israelis are keeping a close eye on developments in Egypt as president Mubarak is now old and in frail health.

What is even more interesting is the fact that the Middle East is now the central stage for a new "Great Game", mirroring that which took place in central Asia during the nineteenth century. The implications for this "Game" are far-reaching. With regards to Lebanon, the Special Tribunal is largely considered to be politicised now, and is being used to add pressure to Hezbullah there, with the aim of keeping them distracted and on their toes. In Gaza, slow pressure is constantly being applied, but smuggling is proving to be remarkably successful. What is fascinating about the Gaza seige is the Iranian influence that has been growing in central Africa over the past five or six years. Eritrea is a hotbed for Israeli and Iranian intelligence, Iranian warships patrol off the horn of Africa and the coast of Yemen. Israel is good friends with Ethiopia and have a strong presence throughout the region. Recently an Israeli airstrike struck what is alleged to be an Iranian funded convoy delivering arms destined to be smuggled into Gaza.

Perhaps this would explain the recent "misunderstanding"that took place in Nigeria, where Manoushehr Moutaki, the Iranian foreign minister had to fly over following the discovery of containers containing Iranian weapons. Iran might be looking further afield in establishing smuggling routes. The ship with the weapons had been destined for The Gambia, although it is unclear what destination they were going to. On the map, we know Mauritania is close to The Gambia, and then we have the Western Sahara of Morrocco. One idea that comes to mind is that the Iranians, in promoting their ideology of standing by the Mustaza'afeen (the oppressed of the earth) might be helping the Polisario arm, thus putting pressure on the Morroccan kingdom. Morrocco recently had a diplomatic spat with Iran, cutting off ties because of alleged Shiite influences on the youth there. Impoverished Morrocco has particularly strong ties with the United States, Israel and Europe - most likely due to economic necessity. Still, this is far fetched and nobody has made any news or fuss about this. Then again, Western media routinely ignore the situation in the Western Sahara and that might be the trade off for Morroccan assistance elsewhere.

The other option is that the weapons were destined to be smuggled to Egypt and then on to Gaza via a tortuous and long route through the lawless and vast Sahara desert. It is far-fetched but crazy enough to work. Still, Chad is very much on the side of France, you have the issue of passing through Algeria and Libya too. There are far too many uncertainties and it is far too dangerous, making this very unlikely. Shipping these arms to Latin America is also a possibility but that introduces an entirely new set of problems. Overall, the destination of the shipment will remain a mystery, in the same way as the privateering of the Russian ship, the Arctic Sea a few years ago.

Expect this cat-and-mouse scenario to continue between these powers for at least another thirty years, incidentally the same amount of time that General Sir David Richards believed the war against al Qaeda might continue for, a war that he believes is unwinnable with the methods currently employed. The general advised that the best method to undermine this extremist threat he believes to exist will be in spreading "education and democracy". For a West that is currently weakened by the recurring economic crises that have befallen it, it is by far a cheaper option. The Israelis might also apply a similar approach, in tandem with the United States, with regards to Iran. Expect far more politicisation, music concerts for, and "concerned" coverage surrounding, democracy in the Islamic republic, and, of course, plenty more cloak-and-dagger business.

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Lieutenant General Gabi Ashkenazi has ordered that a letter outlining his thoughts on ethics be "read to every soldier" in the Israeli army. That's quite an interesting and dramatic move from the man tasked with defeating Hezbullah in the next war. I think depending on how the IDF handle themselves in the next war, we might be seeing more of Ashkenazi, perhaps on a political sphere. Israel has a long tradition of soldier-politicians, but in recent years this has fizzled out and the last of that line has been in a coma for a number of years. Watch this space.

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Rocket attacks on Eilat

The BBC coverage of the rocket attack on Eilat was 'interesting'. Somebody seemed to think it a good idea to bring in an expert on tourism to discuss the impact for British travellers?! No questions were asked as to the motive or timing - so soon after the rumours of implicating Hezbullah in the assassination of Rafiq al Hariri and so soon after the visit of President Assad and King Abdullah to Beirut on Friday.

If Israel and America start another war against Hezbullah, or even Iran, the conflict will engulf all of Israel's borders and not just its northern ones.

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The death of a spy

The mysterious death of Ashraf Marwan continues to make headlines here. His wife has now claimed that the Mossad is responsible for his death and that, at the time, he had been hard at work on his memoirs which might have exposed various intelligence agencies in the region during the 1970's.

I think it is very likely, from what I have read about this case, that the man was murdered, and naturally a sloppy police investigation and lack of interest from British circles for the death of a very wealthy man of his stature is more than a little bit suspicious. But the question that puzzles me is why would anybody who wants to kill this man have waited for so long after the 1970's to do so? It has been almost forty years since the October War. What, if anything, would his memoirs have said that would be so outrageous to have in the public domain even after all this time? Unless it is not the memoirs, but perhaps something else that made him a target.

I'm sure if Ashraf was killed by somebody who was not liked by the British, there would have been an utter outcry,and no stone would have been left unturned to prove a connection. We saw a stark example of this in the sensational radiation poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko in 2006, the year before Ashraf's ejection from his expensive London flat. All this makes the silence by the British government absolutely deafening...

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An analysis - Iran sanctions

The United Nations Security Council have voted in favour of a fresh round of economic sanctions against Iran, the BBC reports. This set of sanctions have been watered down considerably and interestingly aim at stopping the delivery of weapons such as helicopters and missiles from being delivered to Iran. This is curious as Iran actually builds its own missiles, though perhaps the sanctions also cover components that are vital for manufacturing them.

Furthermore, Turkey and Brazil are not happy with these sanctions, earlier Robert Gates expressed "concern" about the collapse of relations between Turkey and Israel. China and Russia helped to water down the sanctions considerably whilst Lebanon abstained from the vote, naturally. Will this affect Iran? Unlikely, the report quotes Ahmedi Nejad as saying that the sanctions were like a dirty handkerchief that needs to be thrown away.

This is just another sign of the tightening grip that the United States has been trying to impose on the Islamic Republic. Only recently Obama approved the increase of the reserve stock of weapons that the Israeli state can rely upon when it wages one of its wars. From around $800 million, this is now around $1.1 billion or so, an increase of about 50%. Israel has also asked for more JDAM (Joint Direct Attack Munition) modules which are apparently very useful for transforming cheaper, "dumb" bombs into precision guided bombs. Israel dropped many bombs,with devastating effect, in Lebanon (2006) and Gaza, more recently, using this technology.

It's also noteworthy that Israel just finished the fourth major nationwide exercise only very recently and Hassan Nasrallah made his clearest warning yet on the 25th of May 2010 that Israeli shipping will be a target throughout the Mediterranean as well as the Red Sea if a naval blockade of Lebanon is put in place in the next war the Israelis wage against that small country. These are powerful words and although the world media have generally ignored this warning, I'm sure that the people who need to know about this in Washington and Tel Aviv have taken note.

Will there be a war this summer? I think the decision for war has always been with the Americans and Israelis. We probably won't see any steps towards it by Iran or Hezbullah as that would give the pretext to their enemies to begin massive attacks and might affect public opinion. Then again, the Israelis do not want a war before they are absolutely ready. If they fight this time they have to fight to win. I think Damascus and many cities in Syria will also be bombed if there is a war this time. The chances of this happening are not certain but it is more than likely.

The role of Syria in arming and assisting Hezbullah has not gone unnoticed. I doubt the Syrian front will hold up as strongly as the Lebanese south though, and this might be something Hezbullah will have to factor in. In 1967, the Israeli army attacked and conquered the Golan Heights precisely by going around them via weaker (at the time) Lebanon and then attacking the positions from the rear. This time a similar plan might be a wiser move for the Israelis regarding the south of Lebanon. However, if Syria has a surprise for the Israeli air force, like it did in the opening days of 1973, then the Syrian Republican Guard might just about be able to face off the Israeli army using the same tactics Hezbullah did. In 2006 tank hunter teams with missiles inflicted a heavy toll on Israel's Merkava tanks and the Israeli airforce was unable to dent Hezbullah's heavily dug in defences and tunnels. It would be stupid if the entire front Syria has with Lebanon right up until Damascus isn't already a patchwork ant's nest of tunnels, defence positions and ambush holes. Still, Syria has excellent planners who are qualified in spite of their lack of resources, and they are very good at keeping secrets, so one can only hope they have enough tricks up their sleeves.

One thing that might be possible, and unlikely, is that Israel might attack Syria via Jordan. The Jordanian government, along with that of Egypt, are now firmly allied with the Israelis and a discreet approval for the Israelis to do so, it would be hard to see what Jordan can do if it rejected this, would allow Merkava tanks to cross into the entire south of Syria, push through past Damascus and straight into Lebanon, but that is ambitious and stretches Israel's supply lines. What they might do is use it to overcome Syria's defences and then clear a path straight into the East of Lebanon, but they might as well send a postcard to Hezbullah telling them that this is what they intend doing. Also there are very difficult mountains to cross between Syria and Lebanon, meaning that this wouldn't be a wise move for the Israelis.

Invading Lebanon from the sea is not an option either following Hezbullah's clear message that they have the ability to hit any navy ships blockading the Lebanese coast. Iran most certainly has what NATO calls the Sunburn surface to sea missile. This missile puts the entire sea between Lebanon and Cyprus within range of Hezbullah's defences, if they have that missile, as it has a range of about 110km.

Whenever the next war the Israelis and Americans want to wage actually begins, what is certain is that this will be a very, very different type of war to anything the region has seen since the fall of the Ottoman empire. Ad nauseum, I repeat again my firm belief that it is not if, but when, a new war begins in the Middle East. Any "reality" of peace agreements simply cannot be imposed on the Arabs as long as Hezbullah and Iran are major players in the region. This is not something obvious to many people, but Israel's existence as an entirely Jewish state centered on the Zionist ethos is depends on Israel being able to destroy Hezbullah and Iran. If they don't, then they really will have to follow Helen Thomas' advice to pack their bags and move back to Poland, Germany or America.

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The Economist had a predictable angle for the "Leaders" section in this week's edition. In essence what the article boils down to is that the actions of last Monday are bad only because it is harming Israel's "soul". They remind us readers, in case we forget, that Israel is "a regional hub of science, business and culture"....wa ma adraka ma regional hub...

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A word on Gabi Ashkenazi

Mark my words, Gabi Ashkenazi is somebody we will be hearing a lot more of in the near future. He's tough, experienced and has a sensible head on his shoulders. Firmly rooted in the old school way of the early Zionists, he's not somebody to underestimate and well respected in Israel, he's probably one of the few members of the Israeli establishment that hasn't, to my knowledge, had a pulsa diNura (ancient Hebrew curse) done on him yet. Usually in Israeli popular culture that means he can't be a politician yet, but these are desparate times for the Jewish state and, jokes aside, his presence amongst the current batch of clowns running the show there has a soothing effect on the people and the soldiers. That's why he's been appointed to his current role as well as to prepare the IDF for the next war with Hezbullah and potentially Iran.

Ashkenazi is considered the right man for the job as he was also head of intelligence for South Lebanon during the time that Israel occupied it so he knows Hezbullah and knows what they are capable of. Of course Hezbullah know him well too...but they've already defeated the Israelis twice. Commemorating the tenth anniversary of liberating the south of Lebanon, Hassan Nasrallah played down some concerns about Ashkenazi's appointment, putting him in perspective with what were actually quite sensible arguments rather than bombast (not that Nasrallah has ever resorted to bombast to my knowledge). Still, Hezbullah will have to be careful, this guy will be a tough nut to crack.

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"Murder on the High Seas"

Following on from last night's post I have to say I was surprised at the number of deaths in the flotilla. Last night I wrote that If you are strong you don't need to worry about what people think about you. The killing of about 20 people yesterday conveyed a number of important messages.

Firstly it is that Israel is sovereign and international outcry is not a factor in its decision making when it comes to this sovereignty. There is a message to the Turks, you are not Europeans, you will be tolerated only so far. There is a message to the Europeans, we don't care what you think and then there is a message to Americans activists, what are you doing you idiots, your government is our ally and will never change. The second part of the message is that the Gaza siege is staying Nobody can help you and if they do we will crush them. That's it. I think Israel is moderately satisfied with the result, though they would probably have found it much more useful if this happened in broad daylight as the message would have been clearer.

It's quite sad that last night Idealism lost her virginity and not in the way she would have liked. Still, this will be an enormous propaganda coup for Syria, Hezbullah, Hamas and Iran. It puts enormous pressure on Israel's Arab allies and it introduces officially a new factor in the Middle East equation, Turkey. After much flirting it seems the role of Turkey is now increasing, and not just from a negotiations point of view. Turkey is strengthening its ties considerably with Syria and Iran on both a political and economic level. Unless there is a military coup there, or a change of government, then that situation is unlikely to change.

So the sad death of these people has not been entirely in vain. It does serve as a useful reminder to activists that this is a serious business. Twittering, blogging and wearing rubber bracelets with the Palestinian flag are nice in San Francisco or London but bullets don't see these things. There is a different world with different rules. Think of it like the difference between watching polar bears on a Coca-Cola advert and being face to face with one. It's not so cute when your life is on the line.

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Realpolitik and breaking the Gaza siege

I think it is admirable that anybody is trying to break the unjust siege of Gaza but for a nation that shamelessly killed thousands of people in Lebanon and Gaza in front of the whole world, I don't expect they will be too worried about stopping the flotilla. I think the day Israel starts to worry about what international public opinion says of it is the day that they have lost the war completely. That is a fact. If you are strong you don't need to worry about what people think about you.

In fact in the Middle East industry (yes - it is a living for many people on both sides of the divide), most people miss that point. Mao Zedong put it aptly, power flows out of the barrel of a gun and no one understands this better than the Zionist. Not that there is anything wrong with that logic. It is almost like a mathematical rule, in fact it is a necessity for anybody keen on surviving to understand the nature of power and how it flows like a stream through rocks and pathways, concentrating in little pools here and there. In that sense, when the student of politics examines the statements, political positions and public expressions of the Zionist government or military, you find expressions of strength and sovereignty in every nuance. It is something on which there is no compromise.

Machiavelli was demonised forever when he tried to sum up what a prince would need to do in order to acquire and then maintain his power. It was not about morality or right and wrong. The morality of nations is different from individual morality. To confuse the two risks injustice on a massive scale. Incontinent people, always ready to miss an opportunity at knowledge, refuse this equation foolishly. As the Arabic saying goes, الفرد في يد المنيح يدبح"the gun in the hands of a good man kills". What that means is that a weapon, in the hands of a self-styled good man, will kill because of his eagerness to do good. Good and evil have different meanings when it comes to the morality of nations and this requires individuals of a particular kind of stomach.

When one looks at the opposing camp, the majority of Arab nations lack this in their dialogue and that is because the majority have decided that they would rather become protectorates. Where you do find the same non-compromising, sovereign and power-conscious discourse is in the speeches, nuances and every detail that emanate from Iran, Hezbullah and Syria.

In this way you begin to identify the two opposing poles around which power is being concentrated. An alliance of Muslim and Arab countries on the one hand, and the Zionist state on the other. The key though is always to be able to recognise power. How is it expressed? Where is it located and what are its limits? Everything else is secondary whether it is culture, tolerance or 'freedom'.

To conclude, if your analysis of the Middle East lacks this nuance then it is flawed. Discussions of peace, tolerance and co-existence are irrelevant. Once the reins of power are assumed there is not a nation in history that has ever given them up willingly. The Cold War ended only with the collapse of the Soviet Union. Rome destroyed Carthage. Sparta defeated Athens. Nazi Germany and Japan were crushed to a pulp. This is a zero-sum game, it is neither tragic nor triumphant to recognise this fact. In the same way that you know two male lions will continue to fight until one of them is dominant, or two stags will continue to clash until only one of them wins the mate, so too the struggle for the Middle East.

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On universal jurisdiction

In a sign of how things will be under the new Con-Dem government, William Hague, the UK's new foreign minister has said it is unacceptable that Israeli officials can be threatened with arrest under 'universal jurisdiction'. This is where a complaint can be made in the UK against personnel who are not even British for war crimes that occurred anywhere in the world.

They can do this if they want, the UK is a dualist country, meaning that international agreements made by the government are only recognised by British courts if there is a statute enacted by Parliament that integrates the agreement into British law. If that does not exist, or if a later Parliament decides to repeal the Act, then it can remove it under what is known as the Doctrine of Parliamentary Sovereignty. In that case international agreements are about as useful in a British court of law as a penis flavoured lollipop. Nice try in trying to arrest Israeli officials, but sadly this was never going to get far anyway.

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The Israeli "Iron Dome"

The Israelis are now putting in place the "Iron Dome" in preparation for the upcoming war with at least Hezbullah, if not also Iran. The thing with missiles is that they are the great force equaliser for armies without an enormous budget to still be able to punch above their weight. Up until now the Israeli military strength, with its carefully cultivated image of invincibility, has been unable to defend both the northern and southern inhabitants of its settlements and cities. This is very important, because if the Israeli citizen does not feel safe and does not feel like his army can defend him, he will go back to Europe or America because deep inside he knows he does not belong there. Whereas the Arabs have mostly had armies which were good at killing their own people, and of course they live under the constant threat of Israeli "non-declared" nuclear missiles.

Iran and Hezbullah recognise this simple fact, and have so far known how to squeeze Israel where it hurts the most. The Katyusha was originally used by the Soviets in Stalingrad and it is as effective today as it was against the Nazis. The Qassam rockets cost only a few hundred dollars to make, as opposed to the "Tamir" rockets that compose the Israeli "Iron" dome and which allegedly cost between $30,000 and $50,000. Now because of the cost it will probably not be feasible to have this "dome" in place over every settlement near the borders. It will probably be linked with the major cities and important positions.

Crucially, this defence network will be centered around Israeli airforce airfields and runways. In the last war with Hezbullah, Israel was soundly beaten back on the ground level. The destroying of one of its gunboats off the coast of Lebanon was also a major surprise. As this blog mentioned many times, Hezbullah needed to find a way of defending Lebanon from Israel's devastating air attacks, which are responsible for the majority of Lebanon's over 1000 civilian deaths during that conflict.

Hezbullah today has rockets like no other fighting force in history. In addition, if war erupts then it is unlikely that Iran will not be involved. Iran also has long range missiles designed specifically to reach major Israeli cities. In the event of the Israelis beginning a fresh series of attacks, it is highly likely that the next set of surprises will involve some form of neutralising of Israel's air capability. After all, a plane needs to land somewhere and if the runway has been destroyed then the jetfighter will need to land on some highway, far from resupply and rearming or repair depots.

Now Israel's top generals know this and are trying to counter the problem. It would be a serious issue for them if they find that they cannot rely on airpower and will have to send their ground troops in. Apart from a core of highly trained troops, Israel's conscript army is no match for Hezbullah in an invasion. The issue is a qualitative one. That's why it is important for Israel to have some form of shield that works. So far the tests of this Iron Dome are "said" to be positive, but remember this technology has not been used in anger before. The one advantage Israel has is that it can choose the time of battle, whereas Iran or Hezbullah rely on a defensive strategy. If Israel feels confident enough to press on with another attack because of this dome, it will be interesting to see what happens if, yet again, the IDF is unable to defend its territory from attack.

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The body of Dalal Moughrabi (age 20) being stripped by Ehud Barak in 1978.

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Researchers from Tel Aviv University and King Abdullah University (TAU and KAU) collaborate on computer 'bot' problem.

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Last night Channel 5 were running the film Raid on Entebbe. I have never seen as much blatant propanda on British television but also I was happy to see how truly dated the ideology behind the film was. This idea of a civilized West, a democratic Israel and the delusion that somehow they were principled or moral has now well and truly been buried. Europe is becoming increasingly fascist and right-wing, Israel is as it has always been, a colonial implant that is occupying Arab Palestinian land. The Israeli soldiers in the film were all 'good', standup guys, people you'd like to have as neighbours or friends. Yonatan Netanyahu was presented as a square jaw, solid guy, dedicated to his work. Interesting as well was how many Hollywood actors were involved with the film, especially Charles Bronson. When I was six I had a poster of him from Death Wish holding a massive gun and blasting away the bad guys. I guess it says something about my generation, taught from a young age that people like him are 'good' when in fact, they are supporters of the Israel.

Still, it was interesting to see how the IDF and the politicians in Israel deliberate and operate. One of my fascinations during my undergrad degree was the machinations of Israeli politics and I remember going through a phase where I was very interested in the Likkud party, I think I even wrote a paper on them. Israel has its fingers in many pies, but especially in Africa. It will be fascinating to go through the security archives of the former Israeli state one day. Very fascinating...

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Israeli settlement building and the pied piper of Washington

While the Palestinian house is in disarray over conspiracy theories, Israel continues to push through its settlement building aggressively. In times like this, it is appropriate for us remember the treachery of that pauper Anwar al Sadat and the damage that he and his dwarf followers have inflicted on the Arab world. Prior to 1973, the Israelis would have kissed the shoes of any Arab leader to at least consider having direct talks with them, today, it is the other way around. In order to even be graced with an Israeli negotiators presence, concessions must be made to the Zionist state. Obama is apparently deeply unpopular in Israel, so it was not surprising that a boost in settlement building took place after he took office. In this way, the world sees Israel as sticking its middle finger to the new magician in the White House, whilst giving it an extra bargaining chip, more concessions to freeze the settlements, meaning that before anybody has even discussed preconditions for meeting, the Israelis have already gained whilst the Arabs lose. So is somebody going to tell us who killed Arafat?

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From Eritrea to Curacao, the great game continues...

Seventeen people were arrested in Curacao for alleged involvement in a drug trafficking ring with connections to Hezbollah, police in the Dutch Caribbean island said today.

The suspects detained yesterday include four people from Lebanon and others from Curacao, Cuba, Venezuela and Colombia, police chief Carlos Casseres said at a news conference.

Some of the proceeds, funneled through informal Middle Eastern banks, went toward supporting groups linked to the militant Hezbollah organization in Lebanon, according to Casseres. The smuggling ring also allegedly forwarded requests from Lebanon for arms to be shipped from South America.

"We have been able to establish that this group has relations with international criminal organizations that have connections with the Hezbollah," prosecutor Ludmila Vicento said.

Island officials said the US and the Netherlands are helping them to investigate the alleged Hezbollah connection.

Two shipments of cocaine totaling 2,000 kilograms (4,400 pounds) have been seized from the ring in Curacao since the beginning of last year. The traffickers used cargo ships and speed boats to import the drugs from Colombia and Venezuela for shipment to Africa and beyond to Europe, according to Curacao authorities.

Several countries including the United States participated in the investigation leading to the arrests.

Authorities with the Drug Enforcement Administration and the US consulate in Curacao said they could not immediately comment on the case.

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Missiles, Missiles everywhere...

Missiles are constantly on the news these days and for good reason. The United States and its allies are particularly worried about threats from what they call "rogue" states and the recent missile test (sorry satellite launch test) by North Korea has ruffled more than a few feathers. I don't think this was because the North Koreans would launch a nuclear attack, they are more interested in bargaining, but because North Korean technology has a way of filtering through to countries like Pakistan, Iran, Syria and other undesirable countries. Unlike the money printing and drug dealing, this is the one thing which annoys the United States the most about the Democratic Republic's attempt to gain hard currency.

Missiles in particular are the headache of advanced armies. They are cheaper than other conventional weapons, difficult to protect against and difficult to find and destroy. The biggest proof in its effectiveness is the continued use of the Katyusha as a strategic weapon by Hezbullah against the Israelis. First used by the Soviet Union against the German army, the Lebanese have found it to be as effective a weapon against the Zionist state as the Russians found it with the Nazi state.

The Islamic Republic is probably the biggest worry for the Israeli's and Americans and the Iranians have been particularly adept at developing and improving on missile technology. I firmly believe that it is only a matter of time before they develop the capacity of nuclear weapons, you don't build an expensive long range rocket just to load it with TNT, so I sympathise with the Israeli and American paranoia. What I don't believe is that the weapon will be offensive. I think that it will be a strategic tool for the defense of the republic and a balance against the Israeli nuclear arsenal, which is desparately needed as the West becomes increasingly bellicose and colonial in its dealings with the Middle East. The very presence of Iranian nuclear weapons would probably be a casus beli but unlike Pakistan, currently the only nuclear powered Muslim country, Iran will be much more difficult to dismantle.

The recent Israeli anti-missile tests are pretty useless, probably just a PR exercise for the Israelis themselves, but it tells us how important missile technology has been for countries and groups wishing to resist advanced Western armies and how seriously the new/old colonial powers are taking them.

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Commentary on Uri Dromi's article in the Guardian

I thought I would take some time to post a commentary paragraph by paragraph of some of the lies that Israel's professional propagandists wheel out just after Israel has killed more people. Uri Dromi is writing an article for the Guardian and thoughtfully tells us why Israel had to kill all those people and that it regretted doing so, but it had no choice. Here is why I think he's talking absolute rubbish.

In the wake of the Israeli operation in Gaza, aimed at putting an end to years of Hamas harassment of the south of Israel, there are now media reports about the possible use by the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) of white phosphorus and flechette shells. Now Amnesty International issues a report reiterating these claims.

This is not true, Hamas had been observing a ceasefire with the Zionist state, which was continuing its policy of assassination and destruction throughout. In addition, the Israeli state had maintained a two year seige on Gaza and continues to do so along with its Egyptian allies.

Some words about these weapons.

White phosphorous is a chemical substance dispersed in artillery shells, used primarily to conceal the movement of troops. It burns on contact with oxygen and creates a smokescreen to mask the military manoeuvre. Unfortunately, it may have a negative side effect: when it comes into contact with people, it causes severe burns.

Flechettes are an anti-personnel weapon designed to strike a large number of enemy men. Basically, they are tiny metal darts packed into120mm shells. These shells explode in mid-air and scatter many flechettes in a conical pattern over an area around 300 metres wide and 100 metres long.

As frightening as they sound, these weapons are not banned by international law. Therefore, when the Israeli army used them in Gaza, it did nothing unprecedented. Peter Herby, the head of the Red Cross's mines-arms unit, told the Associated Press: "In some of the strikes in Gaza, it's pretty clear that phosphorus was used." However, he added: "It's not very unusual to use phosphorus to create smoke or illuminate a target. We have no evidence to suggest it's being used in any other way."

As for flechettes, whether we like it or not, they are standard weapons for most armies. Again, international law doesn't prohibit their use. Even so, the IDF established a commission of inquiry to investigate whether there were cases in which flechettes and white phosphorous were misused.

This is all true.

Amnesty International, however, didn't wait for any such investigation. Quick as ever to blame Israel, the organisation paid lip service to the launching of thousands of rockets by Hamas on Israel during the last years, aiming intentionally to kill innocent civilians. It hardly denounced them and then went on to conclude that it was Israel that had committed "war crimes".

Your army did kill over 1300 civilians, many of them children, over a period of over 30 days of sustained bombing in the most heavily populated area on the planet. A little perspective please.

Alas, war is a messy business. In urban areas, where the enemy is elusive and is using women and children as human shields, war is even messier. Remember Fallujah in Iraq, in 2004, when during Operation Phantom Fury US forces destroyed one out of every four dwellings of this 40,000-home city, killing 1,350 fighters and an undisclosed number of civilians. No one blamed the US for war crimes, and no one dared threaten to drag American generals to tribunals at The Hague. When it comes to Israel, however, double standards reign.

War is indeed a messy business, but you only say this when you kill Palestinian civilians, it doesn't seem to occur to you that since you are at war with the entire Palestinian people, some of your own civilians will get killed too. The same argument can and has been used that almost the entire Israeli civilian population is involved with the Zionist military establishment or industry which supports it, and since your country is on stolen Palestinian land, there are no cities or areas which are not embroiled in this war.

Does this man really think that anybody has forgotten what happened in Fallujah? He might as well have been an Italian fascist claiming precedence with the Luftwaffe and Guernica. Both of these countries will be held to account for what they have done, sooner or later. As for double standards in dealing with the United States and Israel, the phrase a pot calling a kettle black comes to mind.

Go explain to Amnesty, or to the world media, that Israel, in trying to hit Hamas operatives only, took extraordinary steps not to harm civilians. Millions of leaflets were scattered over Gaza, warning the locals to evacuate certain areas before they were attacked. Phone calls were made to specific residents to leave their homes, because Hamas terrorists operated from there and thus turned them into military targets (yes, read again: you call your enemy and you implore him to leave the area so he is not hurt). Last but not least, after exhausting all those warning measures, the IDF fired close to such homes and gave the residents enough time to leave them safely, before the houses were hit.

This is rubbish, Hamas has been warning the Israelis and the settlers not to occupy Palestinian land for years. It has also warned that any attempt at expansion of settlements, or invasion of Gaza, will be met with retaliation. Needless to say, the Israeli settlements have continued growing, Israelis have continued living on Palestinian land and the Israeli army launched a massive invasion attempt into the Gaza strip. No resistance group in the world would even bother giving an invading army an ultimatum before striking it and yet the Israelis time and again think that they can reside in Palestine with impunity and then have the temerity to complain that they are coming under rocket attack from the people whose land they stole. This is double standards to the extreme if ever there was any.

No other army in the world goes to such lengths to try not to hurt civilians. Yet once a military operation is launched, and especially in a heavily populated area such as Gaza, things happen. Was there a disproportionate use of force? The IDF is checking it. Was there misuse of white phosphorous or flechettes? Again, Israel, as a vibrant democracy, is investigating the matter thoroughly. In the meantime, foreign journalists who entered Gaza when the operation was over reported that the initial stories about the damage were grossly exaggerated.

The same holds true for Hamas attempts to dislodge both the Israeli army and Israeli settlers from their land. It is admirable how serious the self titled Israeli "Defense" Forces take any allegations of disproportionate force or the use of phosphorous and flechettes. I am assured that Hamas has also heard of the allegations made against it and will leave no stone unturned in their investigation of what happened, since they too are part of a vibrant democracy and were elected by the Palestinian people in free and transparent elections. Other foreign journalists who entered Gaza when the operation said that initial stories about the damage were grossly minimised but what is your point exactly?

Last but not least, the Israeli use of force must be put in context. Only after exhausting its patience vis-a-vis an onslaught of Qassam rockets did Israel decide to use its military power, in the most justifiable act of self-defence. If there is one commodity in short supply among the Hamas leaders, it is accountability. Hamas brought on the people of Gaza the wrath of the IDF – white phosphorous and flechettes included. Now its supporters are pointing fingers at Israel.

The Israeli use of force took place after it forced a seige on the people of Gaza for two years, during which time it continued to fire missiles into the territory in spite of Hamas adhering to a ceasefire. In terms of accountability, one thing these people are not in short supply of is that. They are of the people of Gaza themselves and are not some foreign body within the civilian population. It is the leadership, their colleagues, neighbours and very own families who are at the front line. Entire families have been wiped out in missile strikes, the very own families of these Hamas men he speaks of. Let us stop fooling ourselves that Hamas have brought this on the people of Gaza, they are the people of Gaza and they were elected by the people of Gaza.

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“This is the day the Kurds were always afraid of. As the Americans leave, once again we are left isolated and face to face with Baghdad.”

Once again the Kurds make the strategic mistake of forgetting that whether it is the United States, the English or the Israelis, all of these will leave the Middle East sooner or later. How the Kurds have been treated is wrong, but they should never have trusted America and Israel. I think eventually they will go through an experience similar to what happened in Georgia where the shock reaches them that they are not in the West, and they cannot rely on people who are only using them as a means to an end and not an end in itself.

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"The only Israeli that wanted to be pushed into the sea was saved by a Palestinian. How sad!"

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