Friday, September 16, 2011

A Syrian Conundrum

Some people tell me they worry that the revolution in Syria is starting to slow down. I say not so. All it takes is for one to watch some of the new videos that are reaching us from inside Syria every day and a new revolution will start instantly. The pictures of Assad's gorillas torturing Syrian civilians or shooting donkeys is enough to inspire indignation and anger in any decent person. People should not worry that, after six months, Assad is still in power in Damascus. They should instead be amazed that after six months the Syrian people are still protesting and that the revolution is still alive; That is the amazing thing. The reality is that the Syrian people are not going anywhere, but Bashar is.

This brings me to the next question, can the protesters remain peaceful or will we start seeing an armed struggle taking place in Syria. I don't think a full scale civil war will erupt any time soon, but rather it will be gradual and slow. Mainly I think this is because the regime will massacre any armed group that tries to take and hold ground in Syria. The Syrian regime and the Syrian people are at loggerheads, and at least one side, Assad and his thugs, are prepared to grind the country to dust before surrendering power. The real question is whether or not the Syrian people who are revolting will be prepared to take themselves over, into, and right out of, this dark abyss. In times like this, the side that is prepared to pay whatever cost is necessary for victory, will win. If the protesters are not prepared to do this then they might as well go home and get slaughtered by Assad's thugs, one by one. But if they are prepared, and I suspect, after six months, that this is the case, then Syria will slowly begin to implode.

I was toying with an idea earlier today, and it is something that has been floating around amongst Syrian Twitter users recently, that Assad's regime might form an Alawite state on the Syrian coastline. It's a far-fetched idea, but it is not impossible. In my own opinion, I think Assad will not go anywhere unless Syrians with guns go after him and force him out of Damascus. After six months it is clear that this thug and his family have no interest in the lives of the Syrian people and will kill as many people as possible to crush the revolution. That is, of course, a frightening idea, but it does not mean that the Assad's are invincible...

Finally, there is something very suspicious about the effects of Ahmad al Arabi's visit to Syria. Turkey's position regarding Assad is becoming ambiguous, the international community has gone quiet, and news coverage of the revolution is slowly dwindling. Something doesn't seem right to me and I suspect we will see the results of that shortly.

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