It is now becoming increasingly commonplace to read such statements in the news

However, after almost eight years of war and with no dedicated military combat units left in Iraq, the influence of the US is waning.

Anyway, the ball is now in Allawi's court. Will this scupper the agreement or has the ship already sailed? I will be watching these developments closely, in tandem with the developments in Lebanon concerning the STL. The Israelis are being very quiet with regards to the declining role of the United States in the region.

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Iraq - An Analysis

The political fiasco that has dominated Iraq for the past eight months is, it seems, finally over. The power sharing agreement will see the Kurds retaining control of the Iraqi presidency, Nouri al Maliki remaining for a second term as a prime minister, and Iyad Allawi has been given a strangely created role as head of a 'strategic decision making department' of some form or other. Not surprisingly, Allawi does not seem to be happy with this arrangement and might, in spite of US pleadings, refuse a role in the government, although allowing members of his bloc to take up jobs in the new government.

There are a number of questions that arise out of all of this; firstly, what on earth was that all about? Well it seems that the regional powers in the region have each backed a particular player in all of this, and the eight month stand-off, not surprisingly, was not due to some inability of the Iraqi's to rule themselves but of finding a way to accomodate between the different interests which were in conflict. The United States has had a profound dislike of al Maliki who, during his years in exile, built excellent relations with Syria, Hezbullah and Iran. In fact he even resided in Syria up until the American invasion and occupation of Iraq. His recent visit, and Iran's widely viewed support for his re-election, was a clear sign of his alignment with the Tehran/Damascus alliance.

Iyad Allawi, on the other hand, appears to be supported by the American-led axis in the region. It is interesting to note that The Guardian Newspaper, a leading left-wing newspaper based in the United Kingdom, always takes care to label Allawi as a 'secular' candidate. One thing any follower of the events in recent years will notice is a uniform revulsion held by both the right and left, of Iran, and this is expressed through the type of coverage that the country receives even by media outlets that are perceived normally to be opposed to American interventions in the region. Coming back to Allawi, it is interesting to note that most of his exile was in the United Kingdom. Also interesting is that in 1990, the CIA began funding his group and there is a familial relation with Ahmed Chalabi although no direct connection between the two politically speaking.

All the facts I have come across whilst analysing this stand-off points to it being a clash between these two key figures. The Kurds, it seems through some kind of Turkish mediation as well, have been watching from afar as this isn't really their battle. It seems they recognise that regional powers, such as Iran, will have to be recognised as a reality, and they will not do anything to anger Tehran although they will also not cross Washington. Overall, they've avoided siding with either of these two enemies and the announcement of the government appears to demonstrate this.

The result of this stand-off shows once again the power of Iran's influence in the region, although the ridicule and borderline hysteric coverage of Western news outlets towards Iran masks this fact from passive observers. Allawi's refusal to accept a post in the new government, which seems to me more like an appeasement that will not give him any real power, will unlikely return Iraq to the uncertainty of the past eight months, something that the United States appears to recognise. Instead, Washington seems to want him to follow a policy of "keep your friends close, but your enemies closer", meaning they want him to at least have a foot in the door regardless of what influence he might be able to corner. If he wants to remain America's man in the country, and become prime minister again, then he would be wise to accept this outcome and bide his time for a more favourable opportunity in the future, should it arise. Then again, he will be sitting in a very different Iraq, one which is now firmly aligning with the Damascus/Tehran alliance, so he might recognise that this was his one chance to try to divert the course. It seems, however, that this is too little, too late.

A very important question on my mind has been who is behind killing the Christians of Iraq. Things have become especially bad for them recently and a lot of publicity has been focused on what has been happening to them. Apparently it is al Qaeda in Iraq - whoever they are - that are behind the attacks. The public calls for Iraqi Christians to leave the country, the intense coverage by Western news agencies all show that these attacks have been fortuitous to somebody, but that does not tell us who is directly responsible, only that some parties might be able to capitalise on this in future. One thing is certain, an Iranian-aligned Iraqi government will not see such attacks, or any kind of further instability and destruction in Iraq, as in its interest.

As is the case in Lebanon, there is now an intensifying tug-of-war between Tehran and Washington. What is worrying will be that once every avenue for the Americans is closed, what else can we expect from them and the Israelis? That question might be answered very soon...

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The death sentence of Tariq Aziz

I was quite surprised to hear that Tariq Aziz had been sentenced to death by the sub-standard Iraqi courts setup after the American occupation of Iraq. Compared to the other members of the Ancien Régime his hands were considered to be relatively bloodless. He was also, unusually for Saddam's other colleagues in the Iraqi Baath party, urbane, well-educated, articulate - and Christian. For all these reasons, it never really occurred to me that he might suffer the same harsh fate as the others. Yet such, it seems, is the nature of the beast.

It is a harsh, Chekhovian, justice which comes to my mind now. Not for the sham charges and ceremonial pomp surrounding the Iraqi courts and their comical judges, but for the dramatic end that has befallen this rag-tag gang of brave, yet ruthless, men who had risked everything - and done anything - to seize power, hold it, and finally to protect it from being wrenched from their fingers by American soldiers and mercenaries. They were all in it together, for better or for worse, and they nearly pulled it off. Nearly. Tariq Aziz is neither a monster nor a saint, but a man of his times. A fine comrade, loyal to his leader, and one who will die by the sword, as he lived by it. Like Saddam, he will hang not for any ridiculous moral judgements passed by those judges, but because he lost the war...

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The Economist on Iraq

The Economist is always an interesting newspaper to read. For myself I am especially fascinated with the uniquely Western perspective that it portrays as neutral and balanced. In their recent issue they ponder over Iraq's uncertain future and in one part of the article they say:

For their part, the people of Iraq never learned to trust, let alone like, the Americans. Yet public opinion has shifted remarkably in recent weeks. After countless American warnings of their imminent departure, all met with stubborn Iraqi insistence that the "occupiers" would never leave, the penny has suddenly dropped. [Emphasis added]

This is a nice paragraph: in one fell swoop it addresses that Arab mind and its love of conspiracies; it affirms the importance of America's invasion and occupation of Iraq; and it continues the enduring myth that the natives cannot go it alone without Western arms and brains.

But what does The Economist mean when it says "the penny has suddenly dropped"? Well, the answer is simple. It means that these pesky natives were always suspicious of the well-meaning White Man's intentions. It also means that these suspicions were fuelling insecurity but now the clever American has called this bluff and really done it - so the newspaper is effectively saying "let us see these children sort themselves out now" because the Arab will never be able to do anything on their own. It's the Arab mind you see...

Also interesting to note is that the public opinion which has "shifted remarkably" for The Economist is expressed in the piece by a single person, 'Wesam' who, it is claimed, is a junior army officer. While it is true that the fledgling Iraqi 'army' that the Americans have created will fear the loss of American troops, where is the public opinion? Does this one phrase mean that the entire Iraqi people now believe they were mistaken in opposing America's invasion and occupation of their country? Apparently that's what The Economist thinks. Fair enough; but wait, the "positive side" to the American invasion and occupation of Iraq, an occupation which the Economist always seems to put in quotation marks, is that the "tyrannical rule of Saddam Hussein" was ended. Yes, he was a thug, but for some reason it seems that the public opinion that shifted remarkably to remembering his rule with fondness compared with the effects of the American occupation is not something The Economist is interested in. No, it is far more important to read the musings of a single junior officer in an Iraqi "Vichy" army as the public opinion of the whole of Iraq.

Far more serious than the above is what The Economist views as progress in the country. Today, only the "tyrannical" Saddam's deputy, Izzat al Douri, has eluded capture. So that's a good thing apparently, le ancien regime is extinct. Also, American soldiers were "flexible enough to change tactics", by this The Economist means it "recruited local allies"; the Sahwa groups. The Sahwa groups were paid money to fight for the Americans and in fact some of their fighters used to be with al-Qaeda in Iraq. If somebody paid these men more then they would go fight for the otherside -therefore these are not allies but mercenaries, paid for by the Americans to do the dirty work. Apparently this is a good alternative to the "unadulterated fire power" that the American troops favoured at first which I suppose must be a good thing considering the effects we still see today in Falluja. The rest of the article just bashes the new Iraqi "straw-man" for being incompetent and not sorting out his security and politics fast enough for America's liking.

Things get more interesting in the newspaper's list of positives that the American "occupation" has brought out. Firstly Iraq is a "more open society" - wonderful news! Also, Iraqis are "no longer afraid to say what they think", and a "cacophony of shouted curses now assaults political leaders" with a press that is "nominally free". All this makes us think that Iraq is now with the same plucky English tradition of political liberalism as Britannia herself, complete with its own "Speaker's Corner". Far more importantly for a Western newspaper reporting on a Muslim country is with regards to alcohol; "Alcohol cannot be sold at certain times, in deference to Islamic hardliners, but is available nevertheless". This always strikes me as curious as it seems very important for the West that alcohol be freely available in Muslim countries, and that women and gay people in those countries be just like women and gay people in the West. I don't know why but that seems to be the case in most articles I read about the region.

So the question is, is this it? Does Iraq really look so rosy today and are these things really worth celebrating as triumphs? A country like Iraq had the GDP of Portugal, albeit under a dictator, and with the highest living standards, in terms of health, education and quality of life, in the region, yet within twenty years it has been bombed back to the Stone-Age by the most advanced army in history; but that is OK, according to The Economist, because these people now have alcohol, the internet, mobile phones and gay pride. Absolutely remarkable.

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American soldiers unceremoniously end combat operations in Iraq

Well it seems that the American army's "combat operations" phase is now finally over. No victory parades, no fancy speeches or handing over ceremonies, instead the thief slips away quietly during the night. Or seems to slip away. There is still a strong American presence in Iraq and the US Embassy complex in Baghdad is apparently bigger than the Vatican. But if you read these stories and believe that this is about the United States leaving Iraq for good, or that this is even about Iraq, then you are gravely mistaken.

I think the timing of this withdrawal is interesting because in a few days Iran's Bushehr reactor will become operational; and a week after that? Well, we can talk about that when it happens. When a bull is expected to come crashing through your living room the first thing you do is pack up all your belongings so nothing is damaged. It would be very bad indeed for the Americans if they had all those American soldiers running around Iraq and Israel decides to bomb Iran before this reactor is activated. We all know the tit-for-tat kidnapping saga that the Americans had went through previously so I guess somebody in the American administration decided they didn't need that, or worse, happening to American soldiers on a mass scale. The clock is ticking, but for what?

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Weekly roundup

Well what is there to say about this week? The week of calamities more like. It seems like everytime I turn to the news there is another story of flooding, death and destruction. And I haven't even started with news from Iraq yet. The flooding in Pakistan was the most prominent in my attention, mainly because Mr 10% is now visiting London whilst his people are suffering. Apparently the problem is being taken care of, so he did not think it worth his time to come back and be a leader to his people. What can you say of a person like this? A man who was in prison for nine years and is now ruler of the same country? Not much that hasn't already been said. Truly fortune is a fickle creature.

In Lebanon the army finally fired back at an Israeli incursion, killing an Israeli Lieutenant Colonel but at the tragic cost of three soldiers and a journalist. Sadly this might not be a new trend on the part of the Lebanese army but more likely that the commander in that area is loyal to Hezbullah and therefore prepared to defend his country. Some suspect he will be quietly transferred away and the issue will be quitened down. Rather than the start of a new war, it seems this little event caught everybody by surprise and both the Israelis and the Lebanese were quick to downplay the incident.

In Iraq a series of bombings over the past two days remain 'unexplained' according to al Jazeera. The hiatus over forming an Iraqi government continues and I heard smatterings about Obama ending combat operations for the United States Army by the 31st of August. I think for all extents and purposes the "occupation" of Iraq is over. At least formally. There are new actors now the dust has settled considerably. What is interesting is to see Iraq becoming the "new Lebanon", that is a country that is totally compromised, fluid and insecure, meaning it is the perfect playground for intelligence services. Maliki is clinging on to the floating debris of his former authority but I don't know what to expect there to be honest. Knowing the Iraqi temperament it is unlikely that some strongman will not try to seize power and send all these politicians to the gallows. When is the question.

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Iyad Allawi visits Damascus

The post-invasion Iraqi constitutional system is in tatters as the country finds itself with no government. It'll be interesting to see what comes out of the meeting with Syria's president and with Moqtada al Sadr. I have to say I have been neglecting events in Iraq for some time and there have been many changes over the past two years. I think I'll post something about that when I've caught up with events and had time to digest the information.

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'Extremists' are stopping Iraqi's from having a 'good' time

This is what the Western press lament the loss of in Baghdad. The declining "nightlife" of the old Baghdad. They even manage to transform something disgusting, into a good thing:

In 2007, when American troops handed control of Abu Nuwas to Iraqi forces, they tried to rekindle the area's freewheeling past by offering grants.

How kind of the occupying forces, how benevolent! This is like the French pushing Algerian women into prostitution, sending them over as 'comfort' battalians for French soldiers in Vietnam, or the pleasure hotels opened for American soldiers after their occupation of Japan.

Aakh...I guess saying this will brand me an extremist because I think alcohol and prostitution are a bad thing. Certainly bad for the poor people forced into this business. The hearts of some men are cold and hard, like stone or even harder than stone. Yet even stones crumble and let water burst from them. So what does that make these people?

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"The company charged with finishing the Ryugyong is Orascom Telecom, part of an Egyptian conglomerate that took on the rebuilding work - "in partnership with a local firm" - as part of a $400m deal to build and run a 3G mobile phone network in North Korea."
Orascom Telecom are also a major provider in Iraq from what I remember. Somebody told me that they are commonly believed to be behind the sabotaging of the countries communications infrastructure (ie. blowing up exchanges) to drive demand for mobile telephone services. Allegedly. I don't know...people talk...

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There are stories in the news about the British mercenary who killed two other guards in a drunken rage. Mentioned innocuously in the articles is the fact that he was captured and detained by Iraqi police and is being charged in an Iraqi court, as if this is a given since the crime took place in Iraq. However this is far from a given in anybody's book. That Fitzsimons should hang for what he did is not a subject for debate, but one wonders whether a similar fate would be so clearly obvious had he killed Iraqis instead. In spite of the fact that Iraq is occupied, I feel somehow that there will not be a rush to save him from the death penalty, owing to his mercenary status and to the fact that he killed two other white men. I could be wrong. But if people think that this is a sign of the increasing power of Iraqi legislation and law enforcement in a country which has American boots marching in it, then they must think again. If and only if we see mercenaries or occupation officials, leaders and soldiers sitting in the defendant's box in an Iraqi court, with a hangman's noose as a genuine possibility for their crimes, will we truly believe that Iraq has finally become a sovereign country.

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Syria: Assad's meeting with Sadr

Muqtada al Sadr made a surprise visit to Damascus for talks with President Bashar Al Assad, the details of which were undisclosed. We can only guess at the nature of their discussion, but I imagine it was to convey some sort of message from Tehran concerning the latest concerted effort being made against Iran. Sadr is reported to have been residing in Qom for some time and the observant will note that around the time the riots began in Iran, regular bomb attacks against Sadr's areas have been taking place, timed with the US withdrawal from the major cities.

In Iran, the Rafsanjani, Mousavi, Khatami triumvirate is still trying to muscle Ahmedinejad in a struggle which now threatens Khamenei himself. Naturally, Damascus and Hezbullah HQ will be anxious for a direct update on what is happening, especially with all the Israeli posturing that has been taking place recently. Although the Republic is distracted, I think it is still business as usual for its foreign operations. In Afghanistan Western forces are still losing men to IED's (Improvised Explosive Devices) and the two British hostages are still a card that has not been played in spite of the release of the five Iranian diplomats. It is not confirmed that Iran is behind this, but it would not be difficult to imagine some involvement, Helmand is extremely close to the Iranian border; IED's were a major gripe the occupation forces had with Iran in 2007, blaming the Revolutionary Guards with supplying the expertise and equipment necessary to construct sophisticated traps, especially in the south of Iraq. Previous to that Bush in 2007 had warned those who opposed his troops in Iraq to "bring it on", and if you remember the American casualty rate soared after that, only to be lowered once a deal was cut with the Iranians. Then it was covered by the silly American "Surge". Anyhow, that was then.

I am not sure what will happen, something has to be done about the agitators in Iran and soon otherwise the situation will get out of hand, but what would happen once that is concluded is anybody's guess. The British and the Europeans seem to have a hand in this though the United States is distant yet sympathetic, probably worried about the backlash it could face in Iraq and Afghanistan. Iraq alone has 135,000 soldiers (probably less now) but an American "Dien Bien Phu" (with thousands of American soldiers killed or in POW camps) is the last thing that Obama would need and could poison his term in office. It looks like Israel could be unleashed if the triumvirate fail to shift Ahmedinejad, but what should really be on everybody's mind is what would happen should Ahmedinejad and Khatemi survive this. And I believe they will...

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Here you go....

"The group had asked that three "high value" prisoners – their leader Qais al-Khazali, his brother, Laith al-Khazali and a Lebanese Hizbullah commander, Ali Moussa Daqduq – should be turned over to Iraqi custody in return for freeing the captives. The Americans were apparently considering this (after a British request) until Iraqi officials said they were not prepared to prosecute the men."

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The video game generation has spoken:  It is also, its makers claim, the first war game to be developed at the request of those who took part, many of whom are keen video game players themselves.

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“This is the day the Kurds were always afraid of. As the Americans leave, once again we are left isolated and face to face with Baghdad.”

Once again the Kurds make the strategic mistake of forgetting that whether it is the United States, the English or the Israelis, all of these will leave the Middle East sooner or later. How the Kurds have been treated is wrong, but they should never have trusted America and Israel. I think eventually they will go through an experience similar to what happened in Georgia where the shock reaches them that they are not in the West, and they cannot rely on people who are only using them as a means to an end and not an end in itself.

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News flash!

"Menacing stray dogs being killed in Baghdad", the headline is actually misleading as they weren't actually referring to American soldiers. Unfortunately...

I think I will keep a regular Dogwatch, where colonial news outlets give more coverage (and regard) to animals than they do to Arabs and Muslims.

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If you want to lose your temper just watch this clip of a US occupation soldier "lecturing" Iraqis about patriotism, courage and how he's doing them such a huge god-damn favour by occupying their country. 

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The stupidity of CNN, "Black Iraqis make Obama a model to follow."

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List of Iraqi academics assassinated in Iraq during the US-led occupation. (thanks Serene!)

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The Mahdi would really be proud of you boys wouldn't he? : "They said to me, 'You mention the Mahdi army one more time and we will beat you, then jail you'," Nour, 21, recalled at the weekend. They were true to their word. She left prison 15 days ago and has been on the run since. "I'm scared," she said. "So scared, but who can I turn to?"

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Time and place of their choosing...

Not that anybody cares, but there have been a spate of bombings in Iraq recently and which mark an increase from before the 'bombing' which took place in Damascus and also the US air raid.

"Less than an hour later, a female suicide bomber detonated explosives in a queue of people waiting to enter the Green Zone on their way to work, security officials said."

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