I still look at the news with disbelief when I see what happened in Port Said in Egypt. What an absolute mess, caused by incompetence and stupidity. I've been hearing some people say that this is a conspiracy, which is nonsense. A football match with terrible crowd management and a badly trained police force is what caused this tragedy, not some nefarious plot by a military council that can barely run the country let alone successfully plot an act of engineered chaos.

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The Arab "Resistance" Crowd Will Ignore This

Here are the debating techniques of some of the pro-Assad debaters on the famous television debate "The Opposite Direction", on al Jazeera.

Of course Arab leftists and pro-"resistance" people are not interested in something like this, they are only interested in the Syrian National Council's supporters when they get rowdy. Of course they are and always will be against both the Syria National Council and the Syrian regime, but mainly the Syrian National Council, but also the regime, but mainly the Syrian National Council. And did I say that the resistance crowd will not be interested in Assad's thugs when they attack somebody? Of course they will fully condemn it, but they will not be interested in it, or bore us ad infinitum with silly sound bites condemning the Syrian National Council, which they are mainly against....though they also condemn Assad...but not mainly...

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Syria and the UN Security Council: Part Deux

Nobody is taking any chances with this any more, the level of negotiations at this level must be the most intense it's ever been:

Hillary Clinton, William Hague and Alain Juppé are due at the UN security council in New York on Tuesday to support an Arab League plan to end the violence in Syria and to try to overcome Russian-led opposition to a UN-backed demand for political change in Damascus.

For the West this is the best chance they can get to be rid of Assad's regime, I don't blame them for going at it with everything they have got. In Russia's case, Syria is their most valuable Middle Eastern ally and a host to a very important naval base in Tartous. If a UN resolution gets passed this week then it will be through sheer diplomatic genius. I'd love to be a fly on the wall in one of those meetings. .

Whichever group thought it a good idea to grab some toeholds in Damascus over the weekend played a smart move. Rather than try to hold out against Assad's regular troops, forcing him to pin down loyal troops in parts of the capital as well as Aleppo means that he has less to deploy in problem areas throughout the country. A few more attempts like this every so often will give other groups operating in the country a bit more breathing space and could start shrinking the regime's options.

The parallels between Saddam's Iraq and Syria are very strong, and I think both the regimes share the same weaknesses. Namely that there are only so many divisions in the army whose loyalty is unquestionable, and they can only be in some parts of the country. The more the regular army is depended upon, the more likely defections and desertions will take place, so if Assad's loyal divisions can be tied down protecting key areas, then that means there are less of his fighters killing protesters or bombing towns and villages in the rest of the country. The Guardian reports:

Opposition groups, spearheaded by the irregular forces of the Free Syrian Army claim to have made a tactical withdrawal from the areas, mainly on Damascus's northen outskirts, and have vowed to mount more guerrilla-style operations as their campaign against President Bashar al-Assad's regime enters a new phase.

So any expectations by some people that this was the start of a liberation for the Syrian capital were premature. Apart from the Zabadani there just aren't any areas where the Free Syrian Army can hold its ground against Assad. I use the term "army" loosely, because I share the view of many people that this isn't really a unified and disciplined fighting force, but just a band of deserters and enthusiastic volunteers who are operating independently of each other in most cases. .

Misguided Nostalgia

I find it particularly revolting when Syrians who passionately support the regime also remember Saddam Hussein with admiration and call him a "martyr". Never in my wildest dreams did I ever get carried away and consider the man anything more than a butcher and a tyrant. But for people who support one dictator, closely aligned with Iran - the arch-enemy of Saddam Hussein whom he despised even more than the Israelis or the West - is laughable. Saddam Hussein and Hafez Assad were tearing at each other's throats for most of their long reigns, and the Syrian passport used to state that the bearer could visit all country's in the world apart from the Iraqi Arab Republic (no mention of Israel on the list).

To consider Saddam Hussein as some kind of champion whilst also supporting Assadian fascism is a brand of stupidity that I can't even begin to address. Then again, hypocrisy and irony are two terms that would never cross the mind of such people. I want to go and cry now.

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Independence day flag in Damascus

A daring act of defiance in the heart of the Mazzeh area, which is the main thoroughfare for Damascus. I can confirm from the surrounding buildings and layout. That takes some.

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The SNC and King Abdullah

I'll say this as frankly as I can, I couldn't give two hoots about who the Syrian National Council writes letters of thanks to. We've reached a stage where even Satan would be protesting to Assad about the violence in the country. If the Syrian National Council wishes to thank the Saudi Arabian king and that outrages some people, then that's just too bad because what they should be outraged about is the murder of thousands of people by somebody they think is their champion.

Let's stop the blame game and the conspiracy talk, if you're not prepared to even start discussing the crisis that this regime has put Syria in then you have no right to criticise what some parts of the Syrian opposition decide to do in response. Having said all this, I think this is another sign of the stupidity that this Syrian National Council enjoys carrying out. Silly, silly, silly...

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Clashes in Damascus

Analysis from the BBC's Jim Muir:

If the Arab League observers had inhibited Syrian government forces from attacking residential areas, any such constraints now seem to be thrown to the winds.

Above is a map of Damascus. The triangle of blue dots highlights the Ummayad Square where Assad did his speech a few weeks ago, Kafr Souseh, where many intelligence buildings are, and Mezzeh, the main highway and thoroughfare for Damascus. In red are the areas where the BBC is reporting clashes between the Free Syrian Army and the Syrian regimes army. That is very close indeed.

At this stage, it's not clear how determined the Free Syrian Army will try to hold the positions in Damascus, or whether this was just a move to unnerve the regime and show that they can reach into the capital. The next forty eight hours should make things clearer. 

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The Syrian News Digest

Khaddam on Assad
The former Syrian vice president, Abdul Halim Khaddam, thinks that Assad is planning to establish an Alawite state on Syria's coast, and that he has ordered the redeployment of Syria's strategic arsenal and warplanes closer to Lattakia and Tartous.

I've heard this rumour floating around for months and I think that is far fetched. Then again, nothing is impossible these days. If Assad did want to carve a feudal domain for himself on Syria's coast, then he could do worse. He could remain relevant to the Russians, and continue hosting a naval base for them in Tartous. He might have some idea that if the Levant's coast has a Jewish state, a Christian state, then why not an Alawite state? Letting the "Muslims" squabble in the interior, and cutting them off from the sea.

These aren't nice things to say, but for this sectarian regime that has never hesitated to terrify minorities and create an atmosphere of fear and mistrust between Syria's community's, I would not be surprised. The other problem with this story, of course, is that Khaddam is the man behind it. I don't trust the man, nor do I like him. He was a part of this regime for far too long, and that makes him suspect in my eyes.

A Massacre
Last week Assad promised to react with an "iron fist" and the results of his decision have started to appear over the past few days. Yesterday alone al Jazeera reported that there were one hundred and two deaths in the country, and the previous day there was a intensive assault on areas of both Homs and Hama; two cities that have been at the heart of this revolution. There has also been quite grim footage of the number of dead children that have been killed, and I've heard that a video on Youtube of casualties from Karm al Zeitoun are particularly depressing.

Many average Syrians that I speak to all voice to me predictions of Assad's fall: Two months, six months, that he won't last till the summer, but always that his end is inevitable. People I knew to be very non-political, and even in some cases a bit sympathetic with Assad, are now shifting dramatically against him. And nobody is afraid of talking politics or criticising the regime anymore.

The Iranian Factor
This is something which annoys me greatly. The constant drip of Iranian stories about Syria. Not many people recall but there was a story recently that five Iranians were kidnapped in Homs. I still haven't heard about their release, and nobody is talking about that anymore, until now. The Washington Post says that gunmen have kidnapped Iranian pilgrims close to the city of Aleppo and that:

Last month, 7 Iranian engineers building a power plant in central Syria were kidnapped. They have not yet been released.

But I'm pretty sure the story was more than a month old, and that the figure was five, not seven. Nevermind, the misinformation and confusion continues. To add more to this mix, Haaretz is reporting that the Free Syrian Army have captured Iranian soldiers in Syria. This is the Youtube video they have linked to. The singing sounds a lot like that found on salafist, jihadi videos. The video purports to show Iranian army officers, and one of them holds up an identity card. I don't know what they are saying as the video is not translated, and I don't know if this is genuine.

I don't discount this video, but it could be fake, and it could be about something else entirely. I'd appreciate if anybody who understands Farsee could give me their insight into what is being said. The article continues:

Moreover, there have been recent reports that Hezbollah was moving hundreds of missiles from storage sites in Syria to bases in Lebanon, fearing the fall of Assad's regime.

The Free Syrian Army 
I'm also watching on al Jazeera English that the Syrian National Council is now going to provide more support to the Free Syrian Army. This army, under Colonel Riad al Asaad, has become more and more prominent in the headlines recently, and I'm reading reports that some of their checkpoints are minutes away from main streets on the suburbs of Damascus. The Zabadani and Madaya areas, a short drive from the capital, are now said to be completely in the hands of the Free Syrian Army as well. If this is true, then things are developing very quickly in a new direction with unpredictable consequences. I don't entirely feel comfortable with this Free Syrian Army business, and I think the Arab world has had enough of triumphant colonels riding into power with the best of intentions. The nature of their relationship with the Syrian National Council, and how much they are under the control of anybody, is all still murky - and I am worried about this a lot.


Syria's Kurds
On another note, a Kurdish opposition meeting in Irbil is probably the biggest sign that everybody is starting to prepare for a post-Assad era, or at least that the Kurds want to prepare for the worst should Syria descend into civil war. The Kurdish Autonomous zone in Iraq is reported to have declared its support for the Syrian opposition. They would not have done so if they didn't think Assad was weak or about to fall.

The Straw that Breaks the Lions Back...
...Could be the economy. The Syrian Pound is now regularly over seventy to the dollar, and the Syrian economy is at a complete standstill. Nobody is happy, and the old families with money in Aleppo and Damascus are said to be fidgety with Assad's handling of this crisis. A nice article about this on the LA Times website:

Some have begun quietly donating money to opposition groups for medicine, food and blankets in neighborhoods besieged by security forces — "playing for the future," as one Damascus businessman put it.

I first heard about this a few months ago, whereby Syrian merchants had been paying their Ramadan alms to the Syrian revolution, believing this to be their religious duty. I heard of one wealthy person purchasing four Thuraya satellite phones from Lebanon and having them donated to the revolutionary committees. Beneath the visage of iron-fisted regime control, there appears to be an invisible network of friends and acquaintances who are getting money to where it is needed. Many families are in dire circumstances and have been so for months, so informal networks are helping to provide for them and delivering food and medicine wear possible. In that sense, I think that the makeshift hospitals and surgeries which are treating wounded protesters are only a part of this massive informal network that is being formed to deliver services and assistance to Syrians. .

Al Jazeera [Arabic] is reporting over one hundred casualties in Syria today. So some people think that the "activist" groups reporting this are not credible. So let's say it was fifty Syrians killed by the regime. Is that less outrageous? What about twenty five Syrians? Would those hypocrites who pretend to be anti-imperialist be as snide and sarcastic in their comments about the daily death toll in Syria if it were Palestinians getting killed each day?

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Somebody recently told me that it is wrong to compare the oppression of the Arab regimes with the oppression of the Palestinians. Wlaa! Oppression is oppression is oppression. I can and will draw the comparison, and it is a moral obligation to despise oppression in all its forms, and not just the colour we prefer.

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The Arab League Points

I didn't follow the Arab League decision and press conference, but I have seen some Youtube clips of what happened and read a few commentaries about the main points that arose. So far it seems the Arab League want Bashar to hand full authority to a vice president who will then run a coalition government that would include the opposition. There is then an aim to have presidential elections within a few months.

Naturally the Syrian regime is frothing at the mouth that anybody dares insinuate a Syria not run by Assad. And what man (or woman) will fly to Syria as a member of the Syrian opposition in order to take part in the government. I mean honestly, who would seriously accept the word of the Syrian regime that they wouldn't be assassinated as soon as their plane lands? I know some people think there is a chance that might stop the bloodshed, but seriously, where are all the shabiha (thugs) going to go? Will they just pack up and return to wherever they came from? Not likely, none of this is likely.

Not surprisingly, I've heard that the regime has already rejected this "interference" in its affairs outright. I'd like to remind most supporters of Assad that interference in Syria's affairs only arose because this regime and its president were so incompetent and stupid, killing and maiming demonstrators and torturing Syrian citizens because they thought they could crush this revolution. When they thought they didn't need to negotiate they didn't. Do you remember how long it took before anybody in the regime even admitted that there was a problem in the country? Every step the regime has carried out so far has always been too little and too late. It was only after thousands of Syrians had already died before the first announcement of "reforms" were announced by the regime. Now that the Arab League is interfering in Syria the regime remembers that it has a national sovereignty to protect. It didn't remember that there was a national sovereignty when Israeli jets bombed Syria in 2007, or when US marines carried out a raid on Syrian land in 2008, or when a Syrian general was assassinated in 2008.

Anyhow, I'm going to stop writing now because the head of the Arab league monitors is giving a press statement about his work in the country.

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