Saturday, November 20, 2010

More on the Special Tribunal for Lebanon

Interesting article brought to my attention by a friend of mine regarding the Special Tribunal for Lebanon and how the US and Israel intend to use it for their advantage.


This all has very serious implications, and is also quite an accurate depiction. There is nothing that can be done by either Syria or Lebanon to prevent the STL from actually issuing an indictment, and Lebanon could very well implode under Iranian-style sanctions. But I don't think it will be used by the United States and Israel as a prelude to an raid on Lebanon in order to bring in the subjects.

As the article suggests, it is more likely they will pressure the Lebanese until someone in Lebanon becomes strong enough or stupid enough to try and bring in the 'suspects'. That seems unlikely to happen, and Hezbullah can take over Lebanon outright and hold it if they wished. The sanctions, though, might lead to acts aimed at provoking Hezbullah or Iran into performing more direct actions against Israel. The idea is to let Hezbullah cook slowly over maybe ten years of sanctions before more direct action is applied, but I think Nasrallah's statements are making it very clear that Hezbullah will not wait ten years under sanctions, and will in fact respond immediately. How they will do so is the big question...

2 comments:

Lirun said...

i doubt we (israel) would do anything.. this is lebanese internal politics.. it doesnt serve us to touch it..

thecynicalarab said...

Israeli nationalists, much like their American counterparts, never find fault in their governments policies - as we see here with Lirun.

The reasons for Israel meddling in Lebanon's political affairs are so obvious it's laughable that anyone dares to say otherwise.

It doesn't serve Israel to cause civil and political unrest in Lebanon? Are you bloody serious?

Right. And slaughtering the Lebanese en masse over and over again served you all no purpose either...

You cannot fool everyone, especially not the Lebanese Resistance.