Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Ever since the fall of Bab Amr in Homs there seems to have been a lull in Syria. A regime unable to control the country and a revolution that won't go away. Then you have a Syrian opposition abroad that can't organise itself to save its life, a Syrian opposition internally that can't make it's mind up whether it will denounce a 'foreign conspiracy' against Syria, or denounce itself for not organising itself effectively to replace a regime that it doesn't have the courage, and wouldn't dare to, attempt replacing. Then you have a Syrian regime that has turned the country into a black box, brutalised anybody who dares to oppose it, peacefully or not, and continues to maintain a grip on the institutions of the country whilst pretending to reform.

Internationally you have a West which is in the midst of political scandal, economic recession and elections and who are willing to remove Assad at any cost they don't have to pay for. In the East you have a Russia and China that are willing to back Assad at any cost. Iran and Hezbullah want to see Assad stay where he is because he is vital for whatever it is they are planning, Israel is keen to see Assad stay for whatever other reason it is planning. The Saudis hate Assad, and would really like him to go, but can't do anything about it. The Qataris have a news channel, and lots of cash, and would like to see Assad go but also can't seem to do anything about it. And everybody, everybody, feels really bad about all the people that have been killed so far, and they think that somebody should really do something about it.

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