Thursday, June 16, 2011

The 'Ottoman' Equation for Syria?

Interesting how Erdogan's calls were being ignored in the week prior to the AKP's election victory in Turkey. Then, all of a sudden, we hear that two high level Syrian officials, most notably Syria's foreign minister Walid al Mouallem, will be visiting Turkey to discuss the situation. Perhaps this is because there is a high level meeting of ambassadors who were summoned to discuss the situations in Libya and Syria. Frankly, it looks like Erdogan is now approaching the Syrian problem with renewed vigour after his election victory.

Turkey's 'Kissinger' Ahmet Davotoglu (who speaks fluent Arabic), visited Syrian refugees in Turkey today and went to the Turkish/Syrian border to see the situation for himself. It will be amusing to see Mouallem pulling the 'armed gangs' routine against somebody as high-profile as Davotoglu, who has now seen first-hand the situation and who has spoken directly to the people involved.

Call it a hunch, but I think the West is not going to intervene with Syria as they did in Libya, in spite of the panicked cries of some Twitter activists. Rather, I think Turkey is going to spear-head any future pressure against the Syrian regime. This will be mainly because Turkey is a Muslim country, and secondly because the popularity of Erdogan and Turkey in Syria (as in the Arab world) is extremely high. This will make any Turkish involvement less inflammatory, and will explain the reason why Damascus is now very worried about its relationship with Turkey.

1 comment:

Nobody said...

This guys gives the Syrian revolution the dimension that you seem to appreciate in revolutions