Thursday, December 31, 2009

"Foreign and Commonwealth Office sources confirmed, however, that the transfer from US custody a few days ago of Qais al-Khazali, a cleric and commander of AAH, helped to pave the way for Mr Moore’s release. They also admitted that British diplomats had been pressing the US to hand over al-Khazali to the Iraqi administration."

The last piece of the puzzle has now fallen in place. Notice how the media is now emphasising the hand of Iran behind the kidnappings, as if it is something new that nobody would have thought of or heard about before. We will see a much more concerted media campaign against the Islamic republic over the coming months as Obama's administration begins to step up the pressure. Up until 2008 we had seen a concerted focus going from Palestine, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq. This has now been shifted eastwards. Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan are now the new fields of conflict between these two very different world views. The idea is that with Iran tied down, Israel may have a freer hand in dealing with Hezbullah and Hamas. On the opposing side, Iran has managed a nice distraction for the Saudi's in Yemen, but the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa are still contested, though traditionally they have been the Mossad's playground.

I think Iran's next move will be to stamp down on the protests - hard - when the time is right. They will continue to dangle the carrots of nuclear inspections whilst in Afghanistan we will probably hear of many more coalition deaths by roadside bombings and attacks. As for Iraq, that is finished, it is effectively in Iran's camp. This will stretch their sphere of influence from Lebanon through to the borders with Afghanistan and with a cozier relationship with Turkey. The Kurds might be encouraged by Israel and the United States to start causing more problems to disrupt this all, the Kurd's have the most to lose as they were the most ardent supporters of the invasion of Iraq. All this time, Iran's nuclear development will continue.

Will there be a war against Iran in 2010? If Iran does win this next round with the West then I think all gloves will come off.

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