Monday, August 25, 2008

The Russians are back

I just watched the latest speech by Hezbullah's Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, as I'm sure most Western and Israeli intelligence agencies did, with great attention. He's made what is probably his most serious threat to Israel to date but one thing interested me in his speech and this was his mention of Israel's threat to both Syria and Iran and to "those who are behind them", meaning the Russians. The Russians are said to have already supplied Iran and probably Syria with it's Tor M1 air defense systems but if Hezbullah has them as well then this would be an amazing coup. During the last war with Israel the Israeli Air Force managed to wreak untold damage on Lebanon's infrastucture and is responsible for the deaths of over a thousand civilians. For Hezbullah to be able to shoot down Israeli planes and deny the enemy control of the skies is a frightening prospect for the Israeli, who is most comfortable fighting his enemy from afar. There is one thing which is worrying, and this is that a cornered and wounded animal can be extremely dangerous. Israel is armed to the teeth with nuclear weapons and it is not beyond these people to threaten the whole Arab world should the Israeli army be incapable of defending the borders. It worries and angers me that these invaders have introduced such destructive weapons into the region.


متياس said...

It should anger anyone with a degree of sense. Fortunately (or unfortunately, depending on how you look at it) I have a feeling that Israel will fall apart once Olmert’s troupe is out.

Amre El-Abyad said...

Tor M and anti air systems are in no way comparable to machine guns. It takes a state with sound technical infrastructure, electronic warfare capabilities and a good few expertise at information technology, laser and networking to be able to neutralise the very competent American air force.

In 1973 and despite of the Russian expertise and and the massing of the full potentials of several Arab states for the battle, the israelies with the help of the back then novel Japanese technology of TV bombs, air-lifted to Israel on th 14th and the 15 of october, punched holes in the Arab air defence systems.

What I ma trying to say is that it is beyond the capabilities of Hizbollah ( a guerilla organization after all) to neutralise the Israeli air force.

Only Syria can do so provied that the Russians decide to supply the latest adequate systems and also Egypt because of its access to both western and eastern technologies which is an advantage per se.

Lirun said...

syria doesnt have the human or financial capital to deal with our army.. no matter how much they are trained..

they need to look stronger if they are to achieve peace because arab countries dont make peace from positions of weakness..

they fear surrender more than they desire "justice"..

the hizbulla is a pain in the ass but if more friction erupts i cant imagine us being as restrained as last time..

the world seems to prefer quick damage over surgical protracted conflict.. the only problem is "the day after" affect..

we can kill eachother forever and make no mistake israel isnt going anywhere.. but one day - maybe - we might wake up and realise there are better things to do with our (and eachother's lives)..

when do you think that you might wake up? in this lifetime?

julius said...

the difference between the israeli opinion and the arab opinion is startling. it seems like most israelis, lirun views hizbullah as a "pain in the ass," whereas many arabs see them as a serious force to contend with. where does the truth lie?

obviously, the hizb is a force to contend with in lebanon. but is it right to say that they are a shia flea biting an israeli elephant's ass?

Amre El-Abyad said...


your army is nothing. Neutralise the Israeli air force- and that is it. No mater how well-equiped your armoured and ground troops are, you will just lose without the ai force.

Amre El-Abyad said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
julius said...

realistically speaking, there is no country in the middle east with the capability of neutralising israel's air force. even if that were possible, it would bring israel's enormous stockpile of missiles into play. and these missiles aren't the toy kassams or katyushas used by hamas and hizb. if israel faces what it perceives to be a serious threat, it will react like - someone already said - a cornered animal. and the damage it will wreak will be extreme.

Amre El-Abyad said...

In 1973 Israel was almost wiped out in 72 hours. But as usual the Americans interfered to save their spoilt brat. Arabs neutralised Israeli air force. The Sam 6 and shelkas and Mig 21 interceptors humilated the Israeli air force.

Don't threaten doom's day kid. LOL

Israel is 30 Km wide with 80% of population in Tel Aviv and Yafa and Hifa. So if Israel goes to Nuclear attacks, Arab missiles with conventional war heads fired at Israeli nuclear installment will have the same effect of an israeli nuclear blow to Arab capitals. Leaving alone, unconventional Arab options of course which are equivalent to Israeli Nuclear capabilities given the the size and demographic distribution of Israel.

julius said...

almost doesn't count, although apparently it's good for a daween or two. that, i think, is the crux of the issue: the idea that the october war as a victory when it clearly wasn't. that said, the americans didn't begin their supply airlift until a week after the start of the war. at the same time, however, the soviets had already begun resupplying their own "spoilt brat(s)." Also, the bulk of the american resupply did not even arrive until the war had ended.

the other sad issue is the importance of "humiliation." yes, the sam missile batteries did initially stifle the israeli airforce. but this hardly qualifies as humiliation. what should have been more humiliating is the fact that within 3 weeks the israelis ended up closer to damascus and cairo than they did in 1967.

victory parades notwithstanding, sadat ended up getting what he wanted simply by giving a speech in jerusalem. amazing to think that simple words could do more than sam-6 missile batteries.

Lirun said...

AEA - qalam qalam qalam

Amre El-Abyad said...

everybody knows lol

Lirun said...

if an army was just about military hardware then on many occasions you could have won..

luckily for us its not..

luckily for us you cant figure that out..

hopefully for all us - by the time you do figure it out peace shall prevail..