Tuesday, December 11, 2007

President Lame Duck or: How I stopped worrying and learned to love Iran

I know I've been a bit busy recently, but still I'd have to be pretty isolated not to have been hearing all the news about Annapolis, the NIE report and other issues which have dominated the headlines - not to mention Lebanon's political "problem" regarding a president. Humour me as I take you through a fascinating journey in which seemingly unrelated news magically re-assembles to show us that Iran now holds all the cards in the region - America knows this and has to come to terms with it.

One thing which annoys me is the absurdity of some of the reporting regarding what is happening in the region. An argument is absurd when one finds its claim so ludicrous or irrelevant that even debating it is a waste of time and it is completely unbelievable. That is what the "analysis" surrounding these events are - absurd. Now, US intelligence is dirty. When I say that I mean that these are people who kill other country's presidents or people, overthrow governments and ehm...get the job done. Fair enough, each country has/needs these kinds of people and they have their uses. But does anybody else think it is not absurd that the intelligence community of a country like the United States would directly undermine the President's belief of Iran's nuclear capability? That they would do this to make him look bad even though they work for him? How can the United States go from beating the drums of war on Iran as the source of all evil in the region, that it is killing US soldiers there and developing nuclear weapons, to saying that actually they aren't now. That it's not as bad as we thought. No no no...

The status of the nine Iranian diplomats has been resolved and the probability of war with Iran now appears to be receding in spite of Bush's aggressive claims - intended for public consumption. In other news, Iraqi's are being encouraged to return back to their country and it appears there is now a trickle. Apparently the "surge" has led to a fall in the number of killings, not to mention US casualties over the past few months. Things appear to be getting stable there...why? Why is Iran sitting with the Gulf states to talk oil and other concerns for the first time? The Gulf! America's pet poodle, sitting down with the prime member of the Axis of Evil!! Who would have thunk it?

Do you want us to be convinced that somehow an increase in US soldiers has led to an improvement of the security situation after 4 years of blood, guts and mayhem? Up to a few months ago we were hearing news of American deaths at almost 100 a month. What magic wand has been waved to fix this?

There has been no magic wand. What do you think the Americans and Iranians "discussed" in those meetings trumpeted around in the news? Stop enrichment or we'll attack? Topple your regime? Impose sanctions? No...the Americans have a problem in Iraq. They could not leave and could not stay, Iran as always is happy to have marriages of convenience (jawaz al mut3a) and this is no different. It's a deal, pure and simple - you just need to connect the dots to see what has been happening.

Oh and Lebanon? They'll be lucky to see a president any time soon according to my sources. Iran can't have a president in Lebanon for the West to be talking to, not with it rejecting Annapolis.


Dubai Jazz said...

I don't like Amir Taheri that much, but he has an excellent piece on the subject matter:

The new NIE has something for everyone.

The US President George W. Bush can cite it in support of his contention that Iran had been lying about its nuclear programme for years and that at one point it had been actually engaged in building a bomb.

Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad can also use the new NIE in support of his no-compromise stance against the American "Great Satan". Last Wednesday he told a crowd in western Iran that he had inflicted a major diplomatic defeat on the US and "other ill-wishers" of the Khomeinist revolution.

The Congressional leaders in the US can also find something to be pleased with in the new NIE. After all it was the Congress that ordered the new assessment because of the new Democrat majority's desire to tie Bush's hands as tightly as possible.

The Europeans are also happy, along with the Russians and the Chinese, because the new American report comforts them in their illusion that the whole dreadful shadow created by the prospects of Khomeinism obtaininga nuclear arsenal may be fading.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) can also spin the new NIE in favour of its own exercise in diplomatic chiaroscuro.

Anonymous said...

And what do you think of the very popular view by a leading Israeli analyst Obadiah Shoher? He argues (here, for example, www. samsonblinded.org/blog/america-arranges-a-peace-deal-with-iran.htm ) that the Bush Administration made a deal with Iran: nuclear program in exchange for curtailing the Iranian support for Iraqi terrorists. His story seems plausible, isn't it?

poshlemon said...

Yeah, what I actually found so absurd is the US intelligence, Iran's nuclear program, and Bush insisting on impeding it anyways (according to the US intelligence, what's there to impede?) <-- very interesting stuff.

Oh, I hate it how external affairs have always and will always affect Lebanese internal affairs. By the way, who are your sources? Am I one of them? hehe

Maysaloon said...

It does indeed look like a "jawaz mut3a" for the Iranians and Americans :) the NIE seems like it was the American side of the bargain for a noticeable decrease in violence in Iraq against them. The Iranians just turned the tap slightly it seems!

The story is indeed very plausible, how else can we explain all these things or that the Gulf states are "allowed" now to finally sit down with Iran. Of course most commentators still write from the perspective that the United States is in some position to call the shots in the region but events show us this is no longer the case. In a much more serious way than we imagined.

It is sad what has happened to Lebanon but I guess this is the world we live in. I'd like to visit there one day as I've heard/seen so much about it.

Bzw - My sources are top secret ;) if I told you I'd have to kill you.