" أحمد مطر " لمن نشكو مآسينا ؟

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A Very Syrian Way of Doing Things

A foreign plot to destabilize the country and spread chaos across Syria has been foiled. Furthermore, the sinister plot aimed at succeeding by subverting the 'real and legitimate' grievances of the Syrian people. Whilst the plot has been foiled, the Syrian government will graciously acknowledge these grievances and will now begin implementing immediate change.

This is the narrative that has now been produced in Syria for immediate reproduction and dissemination across the country and the world. It is a face-saving narrative for those who took part in, or supported, the protests that began in Deraa and spread to other Syrian cities. It is also a face-saving exercise after the Syrian government's atrocious handling of these protests and those ridiculous claims that were made when protests first began. Dr Bouthaina Shaaban held a press conference last Thursday which marked the beginning of the massive public relations exercise that has re-engineered the Syrian government's response to what has happened. It semes, unlike in Egypt, Tunisia or Libya, that Syria has decided to respond to the protests in a different way. It is, however, still unclear how sincere the promises for change really are. As I write this, the emergency laws that Syria has been under for 58 years remain in place. It is also unclear how effective a new government in Syria will be, considering the old one, in power since 2003, offered nothing more than a rubber stamp to all presidential decrees. We do not know if a future government would or could hypothetically refuse a request by the president and begin to behave as the supreme legislative body of Syria that it is supposed to be. There is still no clear view of how corruption will be handled or where the requests for transparency will lead to. Finally, we don't know whether the heavy handed secret police will ever be reined in or held to account. The central theme that everybody is repeating is that Bashar al Assad should be given a chance, for the sake of stability. Nobody in their right mind would dare argue otherwise.

Will removing the State of Emergency make a difference?

In spite of all the uncertainty, it is clear that something has changed in Syria. Whether that something is the breaking of the fear barrier, or an optimism for the future, is a subject up for debate. But what does it mean for the state of emergency to be removed in Syria? In reality will the executive arm of the Syrian government continue to behave as it always has? And will the judiciary and the legislative bodies remain cowed into submission?

That does not have to be the case. The Syrian government has always been keen to appear to observe the "Rule of Law" and the Syrian constitution. Historically, before major decisions were made, either the constitution was amended, or assumed to be there de facto under the state of emergency. This behaviour has been the norm rather than the exception. For example when Bashar al Assad inherited rule from his father, legally he was too young to assume the presidency according to the consitution, but this was hastily amended in order to allow this to happen.

Syria's government mostly, and unusually for the region with the exception of Lebanon and Egypt, does attach an importance to the rule of law. Many, of course, would disagree with such an interpretation, but the rule of law and an adherence to it does not necessarily mean that the laws of the land must have substantive or moral content. Friederich von Hayek himself argued that Nazi Germany still observed the rule of law, albeit the laws themselves were heinous. For Hayek, formal law, that is, law which had no substantive content, was like a set of roadsigns that simply allowed society to function but did not specify how they should function. By and large, one might expect Hayek to recognise this in the Syrian model. The Syrian citizen has, for the past forty years or so, been able to plan their affairs according to laws that were fixed, unchanging and clear, however imperfect. This formal law may have been given a lip service by the government, but it was always there and always in the minds of those who were making decisions. It was not simply discarded as if the country were ruled by a medieval despot. That is very important to keep in mind.

Should Syria remove the state of emergency, nothing on the ground is likely to change at first. Regardless, the opportunity or legal cover for gradual change will have been provided. It will become increasingly difficult for security services and government officials to apply arbitrary and discriminatory laws or decisions upon the citizenry. Judges will be more hesitant to pass arbitrary sentences now that the cover of emergency law is gone and that they are forced to actually operate under Syrian law, with all the trappings and intricacies that this entails. This bigger challenge could, in turn, lead to better judges being appointed and better decisions being handed out.

In the Parliament, members of the body will have much more confidence in challenging and questioning government policies or existing laws. It will be more difficult to imprison or silence such individuals now that it is obvious that doing so will be contrary to Syrian law. For individuals on the street, the right to gather, protest and even declare their own views or form their own political parties will create a new reality on the streets of Syria.

In effect, the lifting of the state of emergency could mark the beginning of the end for institutional corruption. Of course there are no guarantees and the state of emergency can always be reimplemented later, perhaps under a pretext such as a future war with Israel oranother armed insurrection as was seen in 1982. The only hope is that if enough time passes then it may be possible to make such a reimplementation more difficult for future governments and only possible in genuine emergencies. That is, of course, a very big "if".

The Syrian Political Vacuum

Another problem which may appear if Syria genuinely begins to move down the road of reform is that of the political vacuum that has come into existence after decades of single-party rule. Most of Syria's political opposition from the heady post-independence days either no longer exist or have been pushed into exile or irrelevance, sometimes both as is the case with the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood. A new political climate that is conducive to plurality and political freedoms will have to face a political vacuum that is likely to be filled by parties of Islamic tendencies, something worrying to many people. Under Bashar al Assad, a Syrian religiosity was fostered and was found to be a useful outlet for people in the face of American designs for a "New Middle East" in the post-2005 battle for the region. This religiosity may now backfire as Syria is largely without any credible secular parties or political intellectuals of any calibre and who are outside of the government and mercantile ruling classes. The grim warnings by many pro-government supporters of instability and a fate similar to Iraq's may prove to be a self-fulfilling prophecy in such a case. But, if Syrians are serious about reform then they will have to take that risk and face the challenges it brings them. All are unanimous in recognising that the current state of affairs is intolerable.

Where to from here?

There is no doubt that Bashar al Assad has some difficult decisions to make. Stories of foreign saboteurs not withstanding, he must recognise that something is very wrong with Syrian domestic policies and that a change is needed. A simple re-arranging of furniture will simply not do anymore. Whether the country descends into chaos or pushes on to a braver and more promising future is now entirely in the hands of this mild mannered man, the reluctant president, whose only wish was to become an "eye-doctor". Tomorrow this quiet man will address the nation, and the Syrian people will be listening very carefully to what he has to say.

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Confianzas

Sin Comentarios, لا تعليق, Sin Comentarios, لا تعليق, Sin Comentarios, لا تعليق, Sin Comentarios, لا تعليق, Sin Comentarios, لا تعليق, Sin Comentarios, لا تعليق, Sin Comentarios, لا تعليق, Sin Comentarios, لا تعليق, Sin Comentarios, لا تعليق, Sin Comentarios, لا تعليق, Sin Comentarios, لا تعليق, Sin Comentarios, لا تعليق.

Sin Comentarios, لا تعليق, Sin Comentarios, لا تعليق, Sin Comentarios, لا تعليق, Sin Comentarios, لا تعليق.

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يمة موال الهوى - مهداة الى كل الشعب العربي الثائر

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"No Politics Please, We're Syrian" - An Analysis of Events in Syria

One always finds it a much easier task to analyse and understand objectively that which is outside of their immediate environment. I have often wondered why I do not comment as much on Syria and the issues facing this country. Even as I ponder whether to pursue a Phd, I still find that my mind rebels against any attempt to study and examine my homeland further. The truth be told I can imagine nothing more boring to me than to write in-depth papers examining the historical or political development of modern day Syria. Perhaps it is a deeply inculcated fear of persecution, perhaps I have always been intrigued by the Other, the Different and the Outlandish. Regardless of the reason, I find myself driven lately to comment upon the events that are unfolding, especially in light of the wider series of revolutions that are shaking the Arab world to its very foundation. This is an important time we are living in and history, which seemed to forget Syria for decades, appears to be catching up with her finally.

There exists in Syria a dualism which is actually very important in order that we understand what is happening. The international and more widely known face of Syria is active in the byzantine diplomacy and intrigue of the Middle East. It is assertive, sovereign and confident. On the other hand, domestically, Syria is a nation of shopkeepers and merchants. Life in this sphere is different and slower. Rulers come and go, and the world with all its affairs is viewed with an almost childlike curiosity as part of a surreal drama that is unfolding. The big things that the people see on the television would never happen here in Syria, for we are far too sensible and boring for that. Conservative, unimaginative, and yet remarkably resilient and adaptable, the Syrian people move at precisely the pace that they desire. For the sake of simplicity, you can describe these two faces of Syria as the masculine and the feminine. Arguably, one could claim that Bashar al Assad, who inherited the rule of Syria from his father, Hafez, is the patriarchal figure who dominates the masculine aspect of Syria. He is respected, admired and feared like the father of any family.

What and Where?

The problem, of course, is that Syria is a modern nation state and a simplistic paternalist analogy was never going to succeed for long in obtaining the consent of the different groupings that make up society. That is precisely why today we are finding protests beginning to spread throughout the country. In Qamishli, to the North-East of the country, there has always been unrest amongst the Kurdish population living there. Recently, however, there have been protests in the Syrian coastal city of Baniyas as well as in Damascus and in Der'a, a town in the South near the border with Jordan. The motives for each of these events have been different and the groups themselves are disorganised and lack unity. In Der'aa the arrest of some school children who had written revolutionary slogans, slogans that they had been hearing on al Jazeera these past few months, on the walls led to widespread protests. This, in turn, provoked a clumsy and violent crackdown in which at least half a dozen people have already been killed.

In Baniyas the situation is more convoluted and has a more Sunni Muslim flavour to it. The grievances were, amongst other things, the closure of mixed-sex schools and, it is rumoured, the abolition of electricity bills. It is claimed that the centre of the unrest is a client family who had benefitted under the patronage of Abdul Halim Khaddam, a former vice president of Syria and a persona non grata now in exile in Paris or London. In Damascus, a small protest centred around the Ummayad Mosque was much more mercantile, and revolved around demands for greater freedoms and less corruption.

Who are the Key Players

Apart from the Syrian regime and those who benefit from it, there is also a key merchant class of about thirty families that dominate Syria's economy and the names of which can be found involved with every major consortium and development project in the country. It is between these two parties that the 'towering heights' of the Syrian economy now rest. These two parties are not always in consent and there exists between them an uneasy compromise and understanding. For example, when Rami Makhlouf, president Assad's cousin, once tried to seize the prime real estate that used to host the famous, and now long dead, Damascus Trade Fair, the merchant families were in uproar and petitioned the Assad. They too wished to be allowed to draw from the well. It is said that Assad intervened personally in the matter and did not allow Makhlouf to continue with his plans. It was deemed sufficient that he controlled vast swathes of Syrian enterprise elsewhere in the country. The merchants are an important element and were once a major thorn in the side of the late president Hafez al Assad when they called for strikes throughout the country during the seventies. It was only with the intervention of a nebulous and fascinating character, Badr al Din al Shallah, that catastrophe was averted for Assad's rule. Today, Badr al Din al Shallah's son, Rateb, is a key figure in the Syrian economic establishment albeit he is old and not playing as active a role.

The Muslim Brotherhood are scattered and with their base in London. After an ill-fated and quixotic revolt against the elder Assad's rule during the eighties, they were ruthlessly eradicated from Syria and are by and large a spent force. Domestically they hold little credibility and are not trusted. Politically, I do not think they have ever wasted the opportunity to make a stupid political move. When Abdul Halim Khaddam escaped from Syria to Paris, they immediately joined forces with their former oppressor to form some democratic salvation front of some sorts to enact change in Syria. This farcical alliance quickly collapsed, discrediting them even more in the eyes of the Syrian people. Khaddam himself, along with fringe parties such as Farid Ghadry, operate on the furthest fringes of the Syrian political eco-system and I have never seen them as anything more than an eager ally of the Saudi-American alliance that wishes to co-opt within pax-Americana.

Also based in London is the elder Assad's brother, Rifaat. This man was largely believed to be responsible for the Hama massacre in 1982 in which it is said that over 20,000 Syrians lost their lives. After being packed onto a plane out of Damascus he now lives in luxury in London, with properties throughout the world and a very good tax lawyer and accountant in Gibraltar who happens to be Jewish. His son, Ribal, recently wrote an article on al Jazeera English where he portrayed himself as some kind of voice for an opposition, which does not exist and that, in his mind perhaps, might want him and his father to return to Syria. They use the Arabic News Network (ANN) satellite channel as a platform to attack the Syrian regime constantly.

These are the key players who dominate the Syrian political arena, and by dominate I use the term extremely loosely when it comes to Khaddam, Rif'at al Assad, the Muslim Brotherhood and other players who are not the Syrian regime and the Syrian merchant class. What is striking about the protests that are emerging in Syria today is that none of these key players has any influence over the protestors. It seems, to the best of my knowledge, that the Syrian people are fed up with their lack of basic freedoms, lack of opportunities, and that their country is a cash machine for people like Rami Makhlouf; two mobile phone buildings owned by him were burned down during the protests in Dar'aa.

Syria: Where to from here?
Well the Syrian regime is caught between a rock and a hard place at the moment. Contrary to popular belief, the "Hama-option" was not something that the regime had simply applied. There was a steady increase in pressure and violence over a number of years that eventually lead to the explosive and murderous conclusion of the "events" or ahdath. So we are unlikely today to see a massive demolition of the town of Der'aa using the Republican Guard. Such a reality is even less of a possibility today, in an age of twitter, mobile phones and the internet. Hama in 1982 was possible through a complete and utter media blackout. Such a blackout today would not be possible and such an act would be political suicide. So there is no point in being sensationalist or alarmist about it. Finally, the regime is today too enmeshed with the people. There is an almost, dare I say, legitimacy, that the regime enjoys as far too many average people are interlinked with it through marriage, business, employment et al. There is a certain "we are all in it together" attitude that has survived from the 2005 crisis that Syria experienced with the West. The vestiges of this alliance exist still.

The absence of a Hama-option does not rule out the possibility that the regime will continue to be clumsy and stupid in its handling of the protestors. Already five people have been shot dead with live ammunition and an 11 year old girl died from teargas inhalation on Mother's Day. Hundreds of people have been arrested or injured. All of this can snowball enormously, as we saw in other Arab countries. Somehow, Arab rulers still think they can terrify the people if they shoot and arrest enough of them. What they do not understand is that such stupidity, far from guaranteeing their future, in the end only seals their fate.

If Syria is to survive then the Syrian government will have to consider what were once unthinkable and forbidden options. These include the abolition of the state of emergency which has been in place for decades, but also the creation of a fair and transparent judiciary and the fostering of an atmosphere that will allow a new generation of Syrian thinkers and politicans to emerge and to hopefully fulfill the role of a credible and legitimate opposition. There are other, even more terrifying options that those who rule must consider, but these do not need to be terrifying, nor do they need to be uncivilised. For Syria is not Iraq, where most of its rulers in the twentieth century have been murdered. There is a space in Syria's political arena, and a historical precedent, for experienced political leaders that have shared the burden of rule to advise and criticise in Syrian politics. This can all be done without infringing on the country's vital security commitments and alliances. Finally, the deep unease that many Syrians today feel about the protests is understandable. For the first time in their lives, history is asking the Syrian shopkeeper and merchant to play a part in it and to make a decision on how they wish to live their lives. This is at once a terrifying and hopeful time but there is also no going back...

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بحذا حبيبتي - ريم تلحمي (بلدنا ١٣.٣.٢٠١١)

Beautiful song from Tunisia, "Next to my Darling".

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An excellent analysis by my good friend Raw Politic on what is happening in Libya today. I strongly recommend a read. The latest developments show an escalation of the cold war between the America and her Gulf allies against the resistance axis of Iran, Hezbullah, Hamas and Syria et al.

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My Syria...

There is a quite ridiculous #iheartsyria twitter trend that was annoying me a few days ago. Countless inane comments were made about Syria, comments which, in my opinion, could be made about any country in the world. Yet in a strange way there is something that I do like about Syria, and this is something that I did not wish to express in only 140 characters.

A few weeks ago my grandmother died, and as is the custom with Muslims, a wake of some sort is setup whereby relatives and people who knew her could come and pay their respects. Sitting in a large hall with many wooden chairs, they sit and sip bitter coffee whilst a Sheikh recites from the Qur'an. Every so often he asks those present to say a short prayer for the deceased, the opening verses referred to as al Fatiha. All those present would raise their hands upwards and silently mouth the words, then rub their face gently in a downward motion. The recital would then carry on. It is a deeply soothing, symbolic, act and one which unites all those present in a moving display of solidarity.

Each day of the three day mourning period, we were visited by our old neighbours of almost forty years. These neighbours included Christian Arabs and Greek Orthodox Armenians. In Christmas we used to visit them and bring them cards whilst during Ramadan we had one Armenian neighbour in particular, Jean Pierre, who would fast all day and then would come and break his fast at our home. He just loved the atmosphere, apparently, and he did this with us for years. Another of our neighbours, Jojo (short for George), came every single day of the wake. I used to go to their house as a child and we would enact epic battles of playmobil with his brother Tony before their mother would make us sandwiches to eat whilst watching cartoons. To my amazement, I watched Jojo recite the Fatiha for my grandmother's soul along with everybody else each time the Sheikh asked for it and then solemnly bring his hands to his face.

There were no Western newspapers around, no government spokespeople to make contrived statements about peaceful coexistence in Syrian society. We were just small, unremarkable, people who had shared the joy and sadness of a lifetime together. This is my Syria.

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Libya - 'Not All Revolutions are Equal'

The Libyan revolution is now a civil war and it does not appear to be ending any time soon. More importantly, this civil war is now drawing in the key players in the region as they scramble to strengthen their positions. By this I mean Iran, through Syria, on the one hand, and the West on the other. They key point of contention is over the implementation of a no-fly zone over Libya, aimed at restricting Gaddafi's airforce from inflicting hurtful blows on the rebels. Apart from bringing up painful memories of the no-fly zone forced onto Iraq almost two decades ago, there is another very important issue that is being fought over at this very moment. That issue is whether NATO will have another toehold in the region or not.

Unlike with the Tunisian and Egyptian revolutions, the Libyan revolution is now being ardently championed throughout Western capitals. France has already recognised the Benghazi based ruling council as the legitimate ruler of Libya, and it is likely that other Western states will not be far behind. The United Kingdom has been the key proponent of a no-fly zone but this has been severely contested by both China and Russia. al Jazeera Arabic also report that Syria is the only Arab country which opposes this no-fly zone.

The reason for this is very clear, and it was made very eloquently by someone I consider my political mentor. Syria is supporting Gaddafi in his attempt to maintain power, and may or may not be assisting him directly with pilots and planes. It is absolutely certain by now that Algeria is also providing pilots and planes for bombing rebel positions in Libya and they have been doing so for some weeks, in addition the Polisario fighters from the Western Sahara have also been given passage through Algeria to fight in Libya. From Syria (and Algeria's) point of view, the revolutionary wave sweeping the region must be contained. It is absolutely vital for Iran that Syria not be swept or affected by this tide of unrest. Syria is the lifeline for Hezbullah and a vital support for Hamas in Gaza, both politically and morally. In turn, Syria is quite prepared to burn down the house next door to prevent a fire from spreading to her own roof, as is Algeria.

This sentiment is shared by the Gulf states and other Arab countries, however, whilst Saudi Arabia and what remains of America's allies in the region support the crushing of the rebellion with the assistance of the West, Iran and Syria would prefer to maintain Gaddafi, as a matter of realpolitik, than allow the West a stronger position in the region. The opportunistic Amr Moussa is, in the meantime, ardently supporting a no-fly zone at any cost, hoping to ride the wave of revolutionary sentiment that sweeped aside Mubarak. Finally, the timing for an Iranian ship to arrive in the Mediterranean so soon after the fall of Mubarak was clearly an attempt at political one-upmanship.

Ultimately any moral considerations about the Libyan people and their rebellion is not what anybody is concerned about. At stake is the political future for the region, meaning not all revolutions are equal and not all dictators deserve to be toppled. At least not yet...

**UPDATE** Turkey has announced on Monday that it is opposed to a no-fly zone in Libya, especially one that is imposed by the West.

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Some thoughts on C.G. Jung

Over the past few weeks I have been reading the autobiography of Carl Gustav Jung, the famous Swiss psychiatrist and thinker. I don't think I've ever read a more honest and reflective account of one's own life than I have of Jung. Perhaps Malcolm X's autobiography comes close but, purely in terms of soul searching, Jung's autobiography is on a completely different level. In all truth I feel transformed in my thinking about life, religion and the world we live in, almost as if this book was a catalyst of some sort. For the past few months, more than at any other time, I have not wanted to blog or comment on many events that were taking place. Perhaps the death of someone close to me acted as a trigger of some sort for this change I feel in my self, but I could not help feeling whilst reading Jung's account of his journey into his self and his own personal psychological (and psychic) development a great sense of identification with what he had to say.

Somewhere in the midst of sleep and wakefulness there exists that dream state where strange and convoluted messages and symbolism bring themselves to our attention. Such a state is not unique to one person, rather it is universal to all human beings and central to the human condition itself. Behind this state lies the most primeval and hidden part of our character, a part of us that we can attempt to repress, ignore or forget about. Yet from deep within, for those honest enough with themselves, there are also messages and signs for those willing to listen. It is from this depth that I now recognise religious and spiritual experience to come from and not from winged and white robed people in the sky. This unconscious is not just a manifestation of inner desires and fears, but a bank of wisdom and knowledge with a connection to something far more profound and sacred. Something unknown that wants to be known. Something that cannot be conveyed or written about, but only experienced. I can only think of the Arabic description for somebody like Jung, it is اولي الالباب, those with depth/who go into the depths. What lies hidden in these depths I can hardly begin imagining, but I cannot imagine continuing life without at least attempting to discover it.

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